Publications and presentations

Climate and Modeling Scenarios

International w/peer-review

Arason, T, Rögnvaldsson, Ó & Ólafsson, H. (2010). Validation of numerical simulations of precipitation in complex terrain at high temporal resolution. Hydrology Research, 41 (3-4), 164-170.

Christensen, J.H., Boberg, F., Christensen, O.B. & Lucas-Picher, P. (2008), On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20709, doi:10.1029/2008GL035694.

Elíasson, J., Rögnvaldsson, Ó. & Jónsson, T. (2009). Extracting statistical parameters of extreme precipitation from a NWP model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2233-2240, November 2009.

Jylhä, K., Tuomenvirta, H., Ruosteenoja, K., Niemi-Hugaerts, H., Keisu, K. & Karhu, J.A. (2010). Observed and projected future shifts of climatic zones in Europe, and their use to visualize climate change information. Weather, Climate, and Society, 2:2, 148-167.

Kjellström, E., Boberg, F., Castro, M., Christensen, J.H., Nikulin, G., & Sanchez, E., (2010a). On the use of daily and monthly temperature and precipitation statistics as a performance indicator for regional climate models. Climate Research, in press. Doi: 10.3354/cr00932.

Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. & Ullerstig, A. (2010b). 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus, published online. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.

Ólafsson H, & Rögnvaldsson Ó. (2010). Regional and Seasonal Variability in Precipitation Scenarios For Iceland. Hydrology Research, in revision.

Peltonen-Sainio, P., Hakala, K., Jauhiainen, L. & Ruosteenoja, K. (2009). Comparing regional risks in producing turnip rape and oilseed rape - Impacts of climate change and breeding. Acta agriculturae Scandinavica 59B:2, 129-138. doi:10.1080/09064710802022895 (http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/tandf/sagb/2009/00000059/00000002/art00004).

Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Clausen, N.E., Drews, M., MacKellar, N. & Kjellström, E. (2010). Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0955-3.

Ruosteenoja, K., Räisänen, J. Pirinen, P (2010). Projected changes in thermal seasons and the growing season in Finland. Int. J. Climatology, 30(2010). DOI: 10.1002/joc.2171.
Rögnvaldsson Ó, Jónsdóttir J.F. & Ólafsson H. (2010). Dynamical downscaling of precipitation in Iceland 1961-2006. Hydrology Research, 41(3-4), 153-163.

Tietäväinen, H, Tuomenvirta, H. & Venäläinen, A. (2010). Annual and seasonal mean temperatures in Finland during the last 160 years based on gridded temperature data. Int. J. Climatol. 30(15), 2247-2256, doi: 10.1002/joc.2046.

Venäläinen A., Jylhä, K., Kilpeläinen, T., Saku, S., Tuomenvirta, H., Vajda, A. & Ruosteenoja, K. (2009). Recurrence of heavy precipitation, dry spells and deep snow cover in Finland based on observations. Boreal Env. Res., 14: 166-172. (available at http://www.borenv.net/BER/pdfs/ber14/ber14-166.pdf).

Ylhäisi, J.S., Tietäväinen, H., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Venäläinen, A., Eklund, J., Räisänen, J. & Jylhä, K. (2010). Growing season precipitation in Finland under recent and projected climate. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1563-1574, doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-1563-2010.

Other international

Benestad, R.E. (2010). A study of storms and winds in the North-Atlantic, met.no report no 7/2010.

Benestad, R.E. (2010). An analysis if simulated and observed storm characteristics, In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.

Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).

Engen-Skaugen, T., Haugen, J.E., & Hanssen-Bauer, I. (2008). Dynamically downscaled climate scenarios available at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute - per December 2008, met.no report 24/2008.

Gregow, H. & Ruosteenoja, K. (2010). Estimating the effect of climate change on surface geostrophic winds in Northern Europe (CES Climate Modelling and Scenarios Deliverable D2.4). Finnish Meteorological Institute, Technical report.

Jylhä, K. & Jokinen, P. (2010). Climatic zones in Europe as a dissemination tool of climate change information. Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation, 31 May - 2 June 2010; Conference proceedings, p. 102-103.

Kjellström, E. (2008). Ensembles of regional climate change scenarios for the Nordic region. Nordic Climate Workshop, 4-5 Nov 2008, Helsinki, Finland.

Kjellström, E. (2010). Deliverable 4.3. Report on user dialogue and analysis of regional climate scenarios for northern Europe. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Technical report, final version delivered 15 April 2010.

Kjellström, E., Drews, M., Christensen, J. H., Haugen, J. E., Haakenstad, H. & Shkolnik, I. (2010). An ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the nordic countries. In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Kjellström E., & Nikulin, G. (2009). Changes in seasonal mean European temperature and precipitation climate from an ensemble of transient RCM simulations driven by several AOGCMs. EGU2009-11288. Abstracts of the contributions of the EGU General Assembly 2009. Geophysical Research Abstracts. 11. ISSN: 1029-7006.

Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G. & Bärring, L. (2010d). Climate change in the Baltic Sea area in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Proc. of 6th study conference on BALTEX 2010, 14-18 June 2010. International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 46, ISSN 1681-6471, 24-25.

Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. & Ullerstig, A. (2010c). 21st century changes in the Nordic climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E. & Jones, C. (2010a). Uncertainties in the projected climate changes of wind extremes over the Baltic region. Proc. of 6th study conference on BALTEX 2010, 14-18 June 2010. International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 46, ISSN 1681-6471, 38-39.

Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. & Ullerstig, A. (2010b). Nordic weather extremes as simulated by the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model: model evaluation and future projections. In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Ólafsson, H. & Rögnvaldsson, Ó. (2008). Regional and seasonal variability in precipitation scenarios for Iceland. In O. G. B. Sveinsson, S. M. Garðarsson & S. Gunnlaugsdóttir (Eds.), Northern hydrology and its global role: XXV Nordic hydrological conference, Nordic Association for Hydrology, Reykjavík, Iceland August 11-13, 2008, pp 623-629. Reykjavík: Icelandic Hydrological Committee.

Ólafsson, H. & Rögnvaldsson, Ó. (2008). Seasonal variability and persistence in temperature scenarios for Iceland. In O. G. B. Sveinsson, S. M. Garðarsson & S. Gunnlaugsdóttir (Eds.), Northern hydrology and its global role: XXV Nordic hydrological conference, Nordic Association for Hydrology, Reykjavík, Iceland August 11-13, 2008, pp 607-614. Reykjavík: Icelandic Hydrological Committee.

Pryor, S., Barthelmie, R.J., Claussen, N.E., Nielsen, N.M., Kjellström, E. & Drews, M. (2009). Climate change impacts on extreme wind speeds. In: Rockel, B., Bärring, L and Reckermann, M. (eds.) Proceedings from WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate Modelling. Lund, Sweden 4-8 May 2009. International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 41, ISSN 1681-6471, 271-272.

Pryor, S. C., Barthelemie, R. J., Schoof, J. T., Claussen, N.-E., Kjellström, E. & Drews, M. (2010). Intense and extreme wind speeds over the Nordic countries. In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Räisänen, J. (2009). Probability distributions of monthly-to-annual mean temperature and precipitation in a changing climate, 32 pp. (CES Climate Modelling and Scenarios Deliverable D2.4, task I).

Räisänen, J. (2010). Probability distributions of monthly-to-annual mean temperature and precipitation in a changing climate. In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Räisänen, J. (2010). Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change for the period 2021-2050. In Proc. of Future climate and renewable energy: Impacts, risks and adaptation, Oslo, 31 May-2 June 2010.

Räisänen, J. & Ruokolainen, L. (2009). Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change by combining results from global and regional climate models, 36 pp. (CES Climate Modelling and Scenarios Deliverable 2.3). Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Technical report.

Räisänen, J., Ruosteenoja, K., Gregow, H., Shkolnik, I. & Efimov, S. (2010). Probabilistic forecasts for changes in wind speed, solar radiation and selected extremes (CES Climate Modelling and Scenarios Deliverable 2.4). Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Technical report in the form of a web page.

Räisänen, J. &. Ruosteenoja, K. (2008). Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change based on global climate model simulations, 46 pp. (CES Deliverable 2.2). Dept of Physics, University of Helsinki, and Finnish Meteorological Institute, Technical Report.

Rögnvaldsson, Ó. & Ólafsson H. (2008). Dynamical downscaling of precipitation - Part I: Comparison with glaciological data. In O. G. B. Sveinsson, S. M. Garðarsson & S. Gunnlaugsdóttir (Eds.), Northern hydrology and its global role: XXV Nordic hydrological conference, Nordic Association for Hydrology, Reykjavík, Iceland August 11-13, 2008, pp 623-629. Reykjavík: Icelandic Hydrological Committee.

Rögnvaldsson, Ó., Jónsdóttir, J.F. & Ólafsson H. (2008). Dynamical downscaling of precipitation - Part II: Comparison with raing gauge and hydrological data. In O. G. B. Sveinsson, S. M. Garðarsson & S. Gunnlaugsdóttir (Eds.), Northern hydrology and its global role: XXV Nordic hydrological conference, Nordic Association for Hydrology, Reykjavík, Iceland August 11-13, 2008, pp 623-629. Reykjavík: Icelandic Hydrological Committee.

Ruosteenoja, K. & Räisänen, J. (2009). Solar radiation projections derived from global Climate models (part of CES Deliverable D2.4). Finnish Meteorological Institute and Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Technical report.

Shkolnik I.M. (2008). Climate in the late 20th and 21st centuries over the northern Eurasia: RCM and CMIP3 simulations. EGU General Assembly 2008, Vienna, 13-18 April 2008.

Shkolnik I.M. (2008). Climate in the late 20th and 21st centuries over the northern Eurasia: RCM and CMIP3 simulations. RMIP Workshop, Beijing, 25-29 May 2008.

Shkolnik I.M. (2008). Climate in the late 20th and 21st centuries over the northern Eurasia: RCM and CMIP3 simulations. NEESPI Workshop at NCDC, Asheville, 8-12 December 2008.

Shkolnik I.M. (2008). Climate in the late 20th and 21st centuries over the northern Eurasia: RCM and CMIP3 simulations.: Fall AGU meeting, San-Francisco, 15-19 December 2008.

Shkolnik, I. & Efimov, S. (2010). Projections of selected temperature and precipitation extremes inferred by CMIP3 models (CES Deliverable D2.4). Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Technical Report.

Tietäväinen, H., Ylhäisi, J. & Jylhä, K. (2010). Summertime Precipitation in Finland under Recent and Projected Climate. Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy: Impacts, Risks and Adaptation, 31 May - 2 June 2010; Conference proceedings, p. 26-27.Pryor, S., Barthelmie, R.J., Clausse, N.E., Nielsen, N.M., Kjellström, E. & Drews, M. (2009). Climate change impacts on extreme wind speeds. In: Rockel, B., Bärring, L and Reckermann, M. (eds.) Proceedings from WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate Modelling. Lund, Sweden 4-8 May 2009. International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 41, ISSN 1681-6471, 271-272.

National

Eklund, J. (2010). Lumiolojen muutokset Pohjois-Euroopassa alueellisissa ENSEMBLES-ilmastomallisimulaatioissa (Changes in snow conditions in northern Europe in ENSEMBLES regional climate model simulations; in Finnish). MSc thesis, University of Helsinki, 65 + 3 pp.

Jylhä K., Ruosteenoja K., Räisänen J., Venäläinen A., Tuomenvirta H., Ruokolainen L., Saku S. & Seitola T. (2009). The changing climate in Finland: estimates for adaptation studies. ACCLIM project report 2009. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Report 2009:4, 102 p. (in Finnish, abstract, extended abstract and captions for figures and tables in English).

Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Nikulin, G., Strandberg, G. & Ullerstig, A. (2009). Changes in the wintertime temperature climate as deduced from an ensemble of regional climate change simulations for Europe. Rossby Centre Newsletter, May 2009.

Räisänen, J. & L. Ruokolainen (2008). Probabilistic climate fore­casts based on multi-model ensemble simulations. 26.02.2008: Modellers' review, Helsinki.

Räisänen, J. & Ruokolainen L. (2009). Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change by combining results from global and regional climate models (CES Climate Modelling and Scenarios Deliverable D2.3). 36 pp.

Venäläinen, A., Saku, S., Jylhä, K., Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E. & Bärring, L. (2009). Climate extremes and safety of nuclear power plants: Extreme temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate. Nordisk Kärnsäkerhet, NKS-194. pp 33. ISBN 978-87-7893-261-7. http://www.nks.org/download/pdf/NKS-Pub/NKS-194.pdf

Ylhäisi, J. (2009). Sademääräsimulaatiot ENSEMBLES-hankkeen alueellisissa ilmastomalleissa. Master thesis. University of Helsinki.

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/EGU2009-11288.pdf

Others (examples only)

06.05.2009. “An ensemble of regional climate change simulations.” The 2nd International Lund RCM Workshop. Kjellström, E.

14.05.2009. ”Ilmastonmuutos ja tuoreet lämpöennätykset: aiemmat havainnot antavat harhaisen kuvan nykyisestä ilmastosta (Climate change and new temperature records: past observations give a biased view of the present climate, In Finnish).” Geophysics Days, Helsinki. Räisänen, J.

27.05.2009. “Uncertainties in climate scenarios.” Joensuu Forestry Networking Week 25-29 May 2009, K. Jylhä http://www.metla.fi/tapahtumat/2009/JFNW2009/Jylha.pdf

13.06.2009. “På gång inom klimatforskning” (Ongoing activities in climate resarch, In Swedish). Presentation at a project meeting within a Swedish project on “Spillway design floods in a changing climate - Scenarios in a 50-year perspective.” At SMHI, E. Kjellström.

23.9.2009. A presentation in Finnish about the most recent results from climate modeling at the meeting "How will energy be produced in Finland in the future?", organized by Finnish Energy Industries and participated by energy companies and non-governmental organizations. K. Ruosteenoja.

27.10.2009. “Current climate change scenarios and risks of extreme events for Northern Europe.” Network of Climate Change Risks on Forests (FoRisk), SNS Workshop, Tvärminne. K. Jylhä http://www.metla.fi/tapahtumat/2009/forisk/Jylha_FoRisk.pdf

“Storm risks on forestry in Northern Europe - occurrence and risk management.” Network of Climate Change Risks on Forests (FoRisk), SNS Workshop, Tvärminne. H. Gregow http://www.metla.fi/tapahtumat/2009/forisk/Gregow_FoRisk.pdf

Ágústsson, H. Int. Conf. On high-resolution modeling and aviation, Keflavik, Iceland 15.09.2010.

Engen-Skaugen, T. “Estimation of extreme precipitaiton; return values and PMP for Norway” (Poster) at at ESF-COST High Level Research Conference “Extreme Environmental Events” in Cambridge, 13.-17. December 2010.

Jokinen, P. Several interviews especially related to severe weather, extreme heat and climate change for radio (~10 interviews), TV (one interview) and daily press (dozens) in late July and beginning of August.

Jylhä, K. Four interviews by TV channels in Septemer and December 2010 about climate scenarios realted to very warm or snowy weather; several intervies in daily press.

Kjellström, E. et al 2009. Changes in the wintertime temperature climate as deduced from an ensemble of regional climate change simulations for Europe. Rossby Centre Newsletter, May 2009. (http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.2923!RCnews_may_2009.pdf) .

Kjellström, E., Presentation of results from the CES project at the conference on “Fundamentale prisdrivere i energimarkedena”, 17e november 2010, Oslo.

Ólafsson, H., Nordic Meteorology Meeting, Helsinki, 07.06.2010.

Ólafsson, O., Conf. 90 Anniversaire Icel. Meteorol. Office, Reykjavík, Iceland 14.12.2010.

Olafsson et al., European Geophysical Union, Vienna, 3-7 May 2010. Poster on Complex weather-related severe events in future climate scenarios.

Räisänen, J. Several presentations within internal meetings of the Coordination Group of Finnish CES Activities, 2008-2009.

Ruosteenoja K and Tietäväinen, H: interviews in daily press (around 10).

Rögnvaldsson O., Int. Workshop on high-resolution modeling (WRF), Bergen, Norway 23.09.2010.




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