-2049. Projections are based on simulations performed
with 18 global climate models under the SRES A1B, A2 and B1 greenhouse gas scenar-
ios.
To facilitate reading the report, only the most essential diagrams and maps are included
in the main text, additional material being positioned in the appendix.
1 MODELLED SOLAR RADIATION DATA
The quantity examined is incident solar radiation (also termed
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_solar_CMIP3.pdf
of greenhouse-gas-
induced climate change becomes stronger. The sensitivity of the findings to the evolution of
greenhouse gas emissions was also studied, by comparing forecasts derived for the SRES B1,
A1B and A2 scenarios. However, due to the relatively short time frame considered, this
source of uncertainty proved to be smaller than the uncertainties arising from natural climate
variability
/media/ces/raisanen_ruosteenoja_CES_D2.2.pdf
30 year time periods (2010-2099)
• Three future emission scenarios: (low, medium, high)
– Comprise of three IPCC Emissions Scenarios: SRES A1FI, SRES A1B, SRES B1
• User Tools: user interface, weather generator, customisable maps and graphs.
UK Solar Resource
present and future
Projecting the UKCP09
anomalies onto the baseline
mode
Present climate grid (5km x 5km)
Future projections rotated grid
/media/ces/Burnett_Dougal_CES_2010.pdf
the cascade of uncer-
tainty becomes greater, which is always the case in this kind of
complex analysis of climate change and extreme events (e.g. Men-
zel et al., 2006).
3.1. Climate scenarios
The climate scenarios in this study are from four global climate
models (GCM) and means of 19 global climate models with three
SRES (IPCC, 2000) emission scenarios (A2, B1 and A1B) and four re-
gional
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
ENSEMBLES
data archive) and their projected annual changes in temperature and precipitation in the Vuoksi
watershed by 2070–2099 compared with the reference period 1971–2000
No. GCM (see IPCC 2007) RCM Emission Abbreviation T change P change
scenario (◦C) (%)
1 19 GCM mean – A2 Mean-A2 4.91 18.4
2a 19 GCM mean – A1B Mean-A1B 4.29 16.2
3 19 GCM mean – B1 Mean-B1 3.09 12.1
4 ECHAM5/MPI-OM – A2
/media/ces/Water_resources_man_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
in
development/policy
• Plausible futures
• No ‘desired’ future (no ‘doom or gloom’)
EURURALIS: Model chain
EU 25 arable and pasture land
160000
170000
180000
190000
200000
2000 2010 2020 2030
year
#
kh
a
A1
A2
B1
B2
EURURALIS: GTAP/IMAGE model
EURURALIS: CLUE model
Example 1c:
MedAction
Focus on participation and storylines
Example 3: MedAction
Land use change scenarios at various scales
To better
/media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
/ design,
availability, materials, ICT,
modal split)
26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 5
Categorising stages of adaptation
Passive Adaptation
- automatic in nature
and economy
- only ex post measures
(no anticipation)
Active Adaptation
- automatic in nature
and economy
- ex ante and ex post
policies
Emission scenario dependent
baseline (A1-T, B1, A2, etc.)
Reference costs and benefits
/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000). The SRES scenarios are
grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of
demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions. The SRES scenarios do not include additional
climate policies above current ones. The emissions projections are widely
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
for Iceland were made. The CE
project used an ensemble of six GCMs and RCMs from the PRUDENCE project for four different
emissions scenarios (B1, B2, A2, and A1FI) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). The GCMs used by the CE project showed more warming during winter than
summer. During winter, the median projected warming from 1961–90 to 2070–99 ranged from
3–6 K, and from 2
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
on Climate Change best estimates for the global mean temperature
change by the end of the 21st century vary from 1.8 qC to 4.0 qC between the SRES scenarios
with the smallest (B1) and the largest (A1FI) greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). For
shorter time horizons, however, the scenario uncertainty is much smaller. On one hand, there
is inertia in the socio-economical system
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf