correlated, making the uncertainty of the changes much
smaller than the uncertainty of the absolute values. How-
ever, it is very difficult to quantify the uncertainty in the
simulated changes. In the discussion in this paper we
elaborate on the uncertainties related to the climate scenar-
ios and data, the data transfer method, and the hydrological
model structure, while here we focus
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
-2049. Projections are based on simulations performed
with 18 global climate models under the SRES A1B, A2 and B1 greenhouse gas scenar-
ios.
To facilitate reading the report, only the most essential diagrams and maps are included
in the main text, additional material being positioned in the appendix.
1 MODELLED SOLAR RADIATION DATA
The quantity examined is incident solar radiation (also termed
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_solar_CMIP3.pdf
in
Norway was provided by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).
TóJ 12 5.12.2009
Memo
References
Bahr, D. B., M. F. Meier and S. D. Peckham. 1997. The physical basis of glacier volume–area
scaling. J. Geophys. Res., 102(B9), 20,355–20,362.
Björnsson, H., and F. Pálsson. 2008. Icelandic glaciers. Jökull, 58, 365–386.
Fenger, J. (Ed.). 2007. Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable
/media/ces/ces-glacier-scaling-memo2009-01.pdf
Icelandic glaciers. Jo¨kull 58,
365386.
Bjo¨rnsson H., Pa´lsson F. & Haraldsson H.H. 2002. Mass balance
of Vatnajo¨kull (19912001) and Langjo¨kull (19962001),
Iceland. Jo¨kull 51, 7578.
Bouillon A., Bernard M., Gigord P., Orsoni A., Rudowski V. &
Baudoin A. 2006. SPOT 5 HRS geometry performance: using
block adjustments as a key issue to improve quality of DEM
generation. ISPRS Journal
/media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf
provide tables and figures incor-
porating numerical data often generated by sophisticated
models. Finally, scenarios can be surprise-free or trend scenar-
ios, that extend foreseen developments, on the one hand or in-
clude surprises and exploring the extremes (e.g. best case/
worst case) on the other hand.
Scenarios can ensure that assumptions about future devel-
opments are made transparent
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
J600v berg 2.utg) were also used in this study.
Table 1. Main characteristics of river basins used in this study.
River Name Type Area Mean Percentage Mean annual Period
/ (km2) elevation glacier precipitation for
Gauging (m a.s.l) (mm) streamflow
station (1961-2014) data
vhm59 Ytri-Rangá L 622 365 0 1564 1961–2014
vhm64 Ölfusá L+D+J+S 5687 480 12.2 2003 1950–2014
vhm66 Hvítá (Borgarfirði) L+J 1577
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf