)
Annual
Winter
Summer
• Accounts for natural
variability and differences
between climate models
Width of the distribution primarily determined by
natural temperature variability: larger in winter than in summer.
Winter Summer Annual
Best estimate (ºC) 1.3 0.7 1.0
5-95% uncertainty range (ºC) -0.5…+3.1 -0.2…+1.6 0.0…+1.8
Probability of warming (%) 90% 90% 96%
Ref: Räisänen and Ruokolainen (2007
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
the territories of European
Russia (ER) and Europe (EU) an ensemble of 9 CMIP3 [1] comprehensive global (coupled
atmosphere-ocean) climate models is used in this assessment (Table 1); so called A2 scenario is
considered. Both A2 and A1B scenarios are similar in terms of resulting global mean warming up to
the mid-21st century IPCC [2]. The projected changes in ER and EU in many cases continue
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
Christian Refsgaard, GEUS All week
AP Adriaan Perrels, FMI All week
SK Sigrún Karsldóttir, IMO All week
FU Frederik Uldal, University of Copenhagen Logistic support
Course material
Papers and book chapters - recommended reading
Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management, 88, 1025-
1036. doi:10.1016
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
?
Methodological reflections on scalar structuration.
Progress in Human Geography 25:591-614.
Bryan, B. A., N. D. Crossman, D. King, W. S.
Meyer. 2011. Landscape futures analysis: assessing
the impacts of environmental targets under
alternative spatial policy options and future
scenarios. Environmental Modelling and Software
26(1):83-91.
Buizer, M., B. Arts, and K. Kok. 2011. Governance,
scale
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Resources and Energy Directorate
Edited by: Heidi H. Pikkarainen
Print: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Number printed: 130
Cover design: Rune Stubrud
Prepared for: The CES project
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Middelthunsgate 29
P.O. Box 5091 Majorstua
N-0301 OSLO
NORWAY
Telephone: +47 22 959595
Fax: +47 22 9590 00
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
Vestmannaeyjar, 12 km off the south coast of Iceland. It is surrounded by sea to the east, south and west. The elevation above sea level is 118 m. Distance from the fishing town on the island is 4.5 km, distance to the nearest village on shore is 40 km and distance to the nearest town on shore is 70 km. That town has less than 5000 inhabitants. This is an ideal seashore background station at 63°N, 20°W
/pollution-and-radiation/pollution/