process. Although the time
frame given in the task refers to 20 years in the foreseeable future, we--- as a compulsory part of
the competent authority (leading agency), who is entitled the legal mandate to facilitate
implementation of stakeholder involvement and ultimate performance of the outcome of the
adaptation plan--- will not confine ourselves to the predefined time frame due
/media/loftslag/Group5-Draft_report.pdf
for a more distant period, 2070-2099. Maps for that period are presented
in the appendix (Figs. A1-A6). Qualitatively, the geographical distributions are similar
to those for the period 2020-2049 but the amplitude of the response is stronger, the A2
scenario producing the strongest, the B1 scenario the weakest response.
4 UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS
Probability distributions for the insolation change
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_solar_CMIP3.pdf
Av. Ed.
Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France
Received: 21 March 2011 – Published in The Cryosphere Discuss.: 6 April 2011
Revised: 5 October 2011 – Accepted: 20 October 2011 – Published: 2 November 2011
Abstract. The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in
Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the
country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for
the surface mass balance
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
about 20-25% in 2010 to about 50% in 2050. Perhaps surprisingly,
a particularly high probability is found in Iceland, most likely as a result of the small
12
interannual variability there. As expected, the probability of very warn years rises even faster
than that of warm months – in northern Europe from typically 30-40% in 2010 to about 60-
80% in 2030 and to 85-95% or even more in 2050
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf
(see e.g.
Steg, 2003). In studies from several countries, push
measures are perceived as less acceptable compared to
pull measures (e.g. Ho¨lzer, 2003; Rienstra, Rietveld, &
Verhoef, 1999; Steg & Vlek, 1997). For example, in a
European study, over 90% of the car users supported
improved public transport and park-and-ride schemes,
while less than 20% approved of reduced parking space
and cordon
/media/loftslag/Eriksson_Garvill_Nordlund_2006.pdf
it will be one of the main aspects
of this paper.
2.3. Properties
The elements of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map are as follows:
Concepts: C1, C2, . . ., Cn. These represent the drivers and
constraints that are considered of importance to the issue under
consideration.
State vector: A = (a1, a2, . . ., an), where ai denotes the state of the
node Ci. The state vector represents the value of the concepts
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
their lifestyles for this purpose. Of those who would be
prepared to change their way of living, most (92% to 96%) favoured options that
could be easily undertaken in the home, and that would cost almost nothing, like
recycling and using less energy. Fewer favoured reducing their private transport
(68% would use the car less; 62% would take fewer flights), whilst price increases
were not popular (only 37
/media/loftslag/Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006.pdf
thus enabling the delineation of active faults in near-real time. Foreshocks preceding a large
earthquake by more than 20 minutes will already have been located with high precision before
the main shock occurs, and may already have delineated the fault plane of the coming main
shock, thus allowing its faulting mechanism to be immediately inferred. Due to its size, the
main shock
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_012rs.pdf
6
0
20
40
60
80
10
0
12
0
14
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q(
T)
(m
?s)
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
l Obs.
WaSiM vhm51
heM
95?bh ??Obs
95?bh ??W aSiM
95?bh heM
Annual max. Q : GEV Distributions for vhm51
Index flood model no. 6
l l l l
l
l l l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
−2 0 2 4 6
0
50
10
0
15
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q(
T)
(m
?s)
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
l Obs.
WaSiM vhm52
heM
95?bh Obs
95?bh
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf