climate scenario. We will
apply this methodology in the current project also. An
important difference is however that the assumptions
for climate and energy system will refer to
approximately the same year.
0
10
20
30
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
8
0
9
0
1
0
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
GWh/week
Eu
roCent/
k
W
h
Deman
d
Supp
l
y
Minimum
system costs
Water values
Marginal
costs
Simulating stochastic
/media/ces/esa_flyer_new.pdf
(alb: AWS)
MODELLING LONG-TERM SUMMER AND WINTER BALANCES
? The authors 2009
Journal compilation ? 2009 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography 241
ed temperatures relative to –20°C to account for de-cay of snow albedo at temperatures below the melt-ing point, following a study by Winther (1993). Wetested both approaches, and chose to use –5°C asthe minimum for the accumulated temperature
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
at
e
(C
limat
e
models
)
GC
M
s
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
RCM
s
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
Initia
lco
n
ditions
/
nat
ura
lva
riabilit
y
X
X
XX
X
D
ow
ns
ca
lin
g/
sta
tis
tic
al
co
rr
ec
tio
n
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
W
ate
r
syst
em
impact
s
(H
yd
ro
-e
co
lo
gi
ca
lm
o
de
ls)
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Socio
-econo
m
ic
imp
act
s
(So
ci
o-
ec
on
om
ic
to
ol
s)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
A
da
pt
ati
on
m
ea
su
re
s
X
X
X
X
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
(Quante and Colijn, 2016). Work on risk analysis and adaptation is in different
stages in the countries of the world.
Coastal floods have caused problems in Iceland in the past (Jóhannsdóttir, 2017) and are likely to do
so in the future as well. Large coastal floods can be expected in Iceland every 10 - 20 years and the
probability of such events can rise with climate change (Almannavarnir, 2011
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_005.pdf
Roald, L.A. and Engen-Skaugen, T.
Projected effects of climate change on the hydrology of Norway ........................................................................ 80
Duncan, N.J., Harrison, G.P. and Wallace, A.R.
Modelling the Scottish hydropower resource ........................................................................................................ 82
Einarsson, B
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf