Discrete
numerical
Categorical Narrative
Constant in space and time A1 A2 A3
4Varies in time, not in space B1 B2 B3
Varies in space, not in time C1 C2 C3
It is noticed that the matrix is in reality three-dimensional
(source, type, nature). Thus, the categories type and nature
are not mutually exclusive, and it may be argued that the ma-
trix should be modified in such a way that the two uncer
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
tg
ui
da
n
ce
fo
rt
ra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
w
at
er
s,
pr
ep
ar
ed
an
d
P. van der Keur et al.
(floo
dmanag
ement
)an
d
wat
er
qualit
y
ag
re
ed
u
po
n
in
co
m
m
o
n
u
n
de
rs
ta
nd
in
g,
creat
ed
th
e
bas
is
fo
rth
e
formul
atio
n
o
f
joi
nt
m
ea
su
re
s
(Fr
ijte
rs
an
d
Le
en
tv
aa
r
200
3)
Mo
del
s
(na
tural
,te
chnica
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
Uncert
aint
y
ha
s
to
be
incorp
orated
:
1:
Ep
ist
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
it will be one of the main aspects
of this paper.
2.3. Properties
The elements of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map are as follows:
Concepts: C1, C2, . . ., Cn. These represent the drivers and
constraints that are considered of importance to the issue under
consideration.
State vector: A = (a1, a2, . . ., an), where ai denotes the state of the
node Ci. The state vector represents the value of the concepts
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
providing 11 minutes of warning time before the eruption.
The tremor signal emanating from Hekla travels outwards in a radial pattern, starting at stations
closest to Hekla and then traveling outwards towards the borders of Iceland. Figure 8 shows the
tremor amplitude plots for stations with a NE bearing from Hekla (Figure 8a) and a WSW
bearing from Hekla (Figure 8b). Figure 9 shows
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2021/VI_2021_008.pdf
) organisations.
Secondly, interviews were conducted with adaptation policy-relevant actors at each level,
targeting those actors who are involved in policy development or administration, resulting in a
total of 94 interviews across the four European countries. Each interview was conducted in
the language of the interviewee, transcribed and translated (Table 1).
Table 1: Case study selection
/media/loftslag/Keskitalo_et_al-MLG_and_adaptation_FINAL.pdf
c
e
m
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
6
5
8
P
a
t
r
i
c
k
D
r
i
s
c
o
l
l
D
e
n
m
a
r
k
C
i
v
i
l
e
n
g
i
n
e
e
r
i
n
g
7 78 Anja Wejs Denmark
Environmental
management
8 93 Tommy Chan Finland Forest sciences
9 140 Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola Finland
E viro me tal
economics
10 147 Jussi Ylhäisi Finland Meteorology
11 (new) Karen Lundgren Sweden
Engineering &
Design
12 (new) Väinö Nurmi Finland Economics
13
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
Delta Change Method
(correction of observed precipitation)
Transformation of precipitation
cont
fut
obsfut M
M
PP =
Observeret n dbør
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1-12-99 11-12-99 21-12-99 31-12-99
Dato
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret
Skal ring af e
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4
- - - -
t
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret D lta Change
Critical assumption:
Future dynamics = present dynamics
No change in number
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
at
e
(C
limat
e
models
)
GC
M
s
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
RCM
s
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
Initia
lco
n
ditions
/
nat
ura
lva
riabilit
y
X
X
XX
X
D
ow
ns
ca
lin
g/
sta
tis
tic
al
co
rr
ec
tio
n
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
W
ate
r
syst
em
impact
s
(H
yd
ro
-e
co
lo
gi
ca
lm
o
de
ls)
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Socio
-econo
m
ic
imp
act
s
(So
ci
o-
ec
on
om
ic
to
ol
s)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
X
A
da
pt
ati
on
m
ea
su
re
s
X
X
X
X
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
horizontal displacement of the most active part of Þófi since the start of
the measurements is mostly in the range 10–35 cm (maximum 69 cm), whereas the movement
in Neðri-Botnar is slower, with the more active points having total displacement mostly in the
range 5–10 cm (maximum 46 cm). The maximum measured velocity of the horizontal movement
in the Þófi area was 92 cm/a over a two-month period in late
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2016/VI_2016_006_rs.pdf