course – Adaptive management in relation to climate change – Copenhagen 21-26/8/2011
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6
Figure 1. Flow chart summarizing information and decision flows of an adaptive management inspired
adaptation planning cycle for road transport (at national strategic / tactical level)
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; from which
extensive data streams enter IMO and are utilized
for forecasts and research purposes.
Dissemination
The main dissemination of IMO is in the form of
forecasts and warnings; through radio, T V, direct di-
alog with stakeholders and through IMO‘s web-site
(vedur.is). Additionally, the web provides compre-
hensive real-time data on the weather, earthquakes
and deformation, as well
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
financial contributions from the
Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration and the National Power
Company.Published materialPagneux, E., Gudmundsson, M. T., Karlsdóttir, S., & Roberts, M. J. (Eds.) (2015). Volcanogenic floods in Iceland: An assessment of hazards and risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót outwash plain. Reykjavík: IMO, IES-UI, NCIP-DCPEM.Under the links below, each
/volcanoes/about-volcanoes/oraefajokull/new-research/
[Flyer]
Jóhannesson, T. (2005). Climate and Energy 2003-2006, Hydropower, snow and ice. CE flyer 2. [Flyer]
Bergström, S., Andréasson, J., Jónsdóttir, J. F., Beldring, S., Vehviläinen, B., Veijalainen, N., & Rogozova, S. (2005). Climate and Energy 2003-2006, Hydropower, hydrological models. CE flyer 3. [Flyer]
Clausen, N.-E. (2005). Climate and Energy 2003-2006, Wind power, wind scenarios, ice
/climatology/research/ce/publications/
fatalities occurred in
mobile homes,
although only 7.6% of
U.S. housing units in
2000.
• A one standard
deviation in the
proportion of mobile
homes in housing stock
(8.3 percentage
points) increases
fatalities by 36% and
injuries by 18%.
The Mobile Home Problem
50
60
70
80
90
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Mobile Homes
0
10
20
30
40
F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
F
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
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Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
the observed data sets are smaller in SW than in NE
• MMM overestimates precipitation, but is closer to observations in SW than
NE barb2right Better observational coverage in SW
SW
NE
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CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
SWNE
• Precipitation trends (mm / 10 yr) in 1961-2000 according to observations
and model simulations (MMM)
• Including the range
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
21
15%
55
26
5%
5546% of world's GDP
2233% of world’s population
10%0%Runoff decreases by
Continental U.S. and Alaska
All scenarios Top 200 basins
Precipitation change per degree T change vs
evaporation change per degree T
All scenarios Top 200 basins
Precipitation change per degree T change vs runoff
change per degree T
A1B scenario Top 200 basins
Precipitation change per Degree T change
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf