TS.1b, TS.2b}
Global anthropogenic GHG emissions
F-gases
CO2 from fossil fuel use and other sources
CH4 from agriculture, waste and energy
CO2 from deforestation, decay and peat
N2O from agriculture and others
GtC
O
2-eq / y
r
28.7
35.6
39.4
44.7
49.0
The largest growth in
GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004
has come from energy supply, transport and industry, while resi-
dential and commercial
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
and corrected data
-5 0 5 10 15
1
.
0
1
.
5
2
.
0
2
.
5
3
.
0
3
.
5
Temperature,°C
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
,
m
m
/
d
a
y
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
JulAug
Sep
OctNov
Dec
Year
obs ALUKSNE
DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
mod DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
JanFeb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
AugSep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Year
Jan
Feb
ar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Dec ear
After the
correction all 3
climate models
agree with
observed data
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
[online] URL: http://www.ecology
andsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art8/.
Ecology and Society 16(2): 23
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art23/
Costanza, R., F. Andrade, P. Antunes, M. van den
Belt, D. Boersma, D. F. Boesch, F. Catarino, S.
Hanna, K. Limburg, B. Low, M. Molitor, G. Pereira,
S. Rayner, R. Santos, J. Wilson, and M. Young.
1999. Ecological economics and sustainable
governance
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
Forsíðumynd: Svava Björk Þorláksdóttir mælir með öldustilli
niður á festur í Iðu í Hvítá. Ljósmynd: Njáll Fannar Reynisson.
V E Ð U R S T O F A Í S L A N D S / Á R S S K Ý R S L A 2 0 1 8
3
Viðburðaríkt ár er að baki
hjá starfsfólki Veðurstofunnar
enda felast jafnan margar og
fjöl breyttar áskoranir í vöktun
og rannsóknum á náttúru -
öflum landsins.
Loftslagsmál eru mjög á
döfinni enda stærsta
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VI_Arsskyrsla_2018_vef.pdf
is
ar
tic
le
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Identif
ygenera
lform
so
f
pa
rt
ici
pa
to
ry
m
o
de
llin
g
Tabl
e1
.
Co
m
pa
ris
o
n
o
ff
ra
m
ew
o
rk
s
fo
r
ca
te
go
riz
in
g
pa
rt
ic
ip
at
o
ry
m
o
de
llin
g
pr
o
ce
ss
es
.
Th
is
ta
bl
e
co
m
pa
re
s
di
ffe
re
n
tf
ra
m
ew
o
rk
s
(bo
ld
,
fir
st
co
lu
m
n
)a
cc
o
rdin
gt
o
th
e
categorica
lcriteri
a
the
yemplo
y(column
si
n
italics
)an
d
thei
rpurpos
e
(bold
,fina
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
in snow cover duration
between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years +1.7°C
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
D
u
r
a
t
i
o
n
i
n
m
o
n
t
h
barb2right -40 %
Magnitude difference
100(Warmest - Coldest)/Coldest
barb2right -37 days
Mean yearly maximum snowmelt rate
Timing difference
between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years
+1.7°CCatchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment
/media/ces/Crochet_Philippe_CES_2010.pdf
variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
(
1
/
º
C
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
11:20 – 11:35
11:35 – 11:55
11:55 – 12:15
12:15 – 12:35
12:35 – 12:45
Jet Stream Especially the North Atlantic (Chair: Robert Erdelyi)
A long perspective on Atlantic jet variability – T Woollings
A comparison of North Atlantic Jet Stream Representation in ERA-Interim and 20th Century
Reanalysis Data - R Hall
Frozen assets: what can ships' logbooks tell us about Arctic climate change
/media/loftslag/Mid-Latitudes-Agenda1_nov2013EH.pdf
of
fu tu re clim ate,
hydro lo gic al m o del or
wind m odel.
Conse quen c e
catego ry
Like lih ood of
th e
consequ ence s
to the e ne rgy
pr od uc tion
R isk r educ tio n
/ con trol /
po tential
D istribution
netw ork
P ow er
p lan t
En erg y sour ce,
(e.g . catchme nt
area , pe at or
b iomass
prod uctio n area )
Like lihood
of th e
phen om ena
Sc en arios and
Ph enom ena
/media/ces/Keranen_Jaana_CES_2010.pdf