Temperature Extreme events
Droughts Storms
Climate 1 +++ ++/‐‐ + ++ + +++
Climate 2 ++ + + + +
Climate 3 ‐ +/‐ +++ ‐ ++ ++
The socio economic conditions in 2050 describe three different worlds, which are represented by the
pictures in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Qualitative description of the three different socio economic set of conditions (Society 1 to 3).
Society 1
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)
Use this model to identify policies that are likely to
succeed or that probe key uncertainties;
(2)
being to
(1) Work with stakeholders to develop a shared under-
standing of the system to be managed and the desirable
outcomes, by developing a system model that can be
used for policy screening;
Wal
as a
d
e social and political values in water resource
ment.
ters and Holling (1990) describe/media/loftslag/Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management.pdf
be adapted to changing
climate. Nonstationary
hydrologic variables can
be modeled stochasti-
cally to describe the tem-
poral evolution of their
pdfs, with estimates of uncertainty. Methods
for estimating model parameters can be
developed to combine historical and paleo-
hydrologic measurements with projections
of multiple climate models, driven by multi-
ple climate-forcing scenarios.
Rapid flow
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of events,
• participatory methods used,
• participation mode,
• skills needed to organize and implement the participatory modelling.
The following subsections describe the criteria and their criterion (in italics) used to classify the participatory
modelling nine process examples in Tables T22 and T33.
Participatory Modelling Purpose
This refers to the purposes that the participatory modelling
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
Vliet, M., Kok, K., Veldkamp, T. 2010. Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies; the use of Fuzzy
Cognitive Maps as a communication and learning tool. Futures 42(1): 000-000. In press.
Souza Soler de, L., Kok, K., Câmara, G., Veldkamp, T. In prep. Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to describe current system
dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon
/media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
out? Who will do the modelling work?
Who should do the technical reviews? Which stake-
holders/public should be involved and to what degree?
What are the resources available for the project? The water
manager needs to describe the problem and its context as
well as the available data. A very important (but often over-
looked) task is then to analyse and determine what are the
various requirements
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stations in
Figure 2.
Figure 2. Stations for national network – suggested and existing.
4.3 Preferred locations of stations for volcano monitoring
A simple but very useful model to describe crustal deformation, associated with magma
movement and volcanic eruptions, is the Mogi model, which describes deformation at the
surface of an elastic half-space. It is specified using four parameters
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uncertainty in various
contexts of importance for IWRM. Refsgaard et al. (2007) describe guidance and tools
related to the modelling process and its interaction with the water management process. Van
Asselt and Rotmans (2002) describe uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling, i.e. in
a broader context with focus on the decision process and the external societal factors.
Dewulf et al. (2005
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measurements in
meters, with a maximum visibility of 20 km, then an hour table is based on 10 minute average
values. Both manual and automatic records are rounded to the next kilometer and combined in a
table with concurrent time.
Present weather
The manual observations are done every three hours where SYNOP codes are used to describe
present weather, while the automatic stations record instantaneous
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(Hjartarson, 1994b) and a geological map by Jóhannesson
and Sæmundsson (1998).
During the implementation of the groundwater module two internal errors in WaSiM were
encountered. Both errors caused artificial creation of water as certain cells started to act as an
inexhaustible source of water. One of the error emerged when it was initially tried to
describe the hydrological properties of a watershed
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