) and changing climate (CC:CC)
1. Current climate (CU)
- varying thinning regimes
(0%, 15%, 30%,45%)
2. Changing climate (CC)
- varying thinning regimes
(0%, 15%, 30%,45%)
3. Current (CU) &
changing climate (CC)
- current thinning regime
4. Current (CU) &
changing climate (CC)
- changed thinning regimes
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of
temperature anomaly
(ºC) between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
Variation of annual T
anomaly (ºC)
between 1991-2007
and 1961-1990
Seasonal differences of P
anomaly (in %)
between 1991-2007 and
1961-1990
Seasonal differences of Q
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1991-2007 and 1961-1990
Variation of annual P and Q
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between 1991-2007
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/media/ces/Kriauciuniene_Jurate_CES_2010.pdf
the
system works’ ( Q3Mulligan and Wainwright, 2005, p. 14). This might include paper- or computer-based representa-
tions of a system’s ontological model (i.e. key system components and their structural relationships). A common
representation is a directed graph in which components are visualized by nodes and relationships by directed
arrows between nodes (e.g. causal diagrams or inuence diagrams
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
the
possibilities to link the (revised) qualitative scenarios to a
quantitative model (Steps 4b and 5b). The potential of incorporat-
ing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in the Story-and-Simulation approach
further increases when strengthening the link between the Fuzzy
Cognitive Map and the mathematical models.
The weakness of this link, and therefore the necessity to
improve the Story-and-Simulation
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
sr
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In
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se
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san
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/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
(Accepted - In press).
Meilutytë-Barauskienë, D. & Kovalenkovienë, M. (2007). Change of spring flood parameters in Lithuanian rivers. Energetika.(Vol. 2) p. 26-33.
Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J. (2009). Climate change impacts on wind energy: A Review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews doi:10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.028.
Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Clausen, N.E., Drews, M., MacKellar, N
/ces/publications/nr/1943
61, 1-18.
Oddur Sigurðsson (2011). Iceland glaciers. Í: V. P. Singh, P. Singh & U. K. Haritashya (ritstj.). Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice and Glaciers. Springer, Dordrecht, s. 630-636.
Árni Snorrason, Jórunn Harðardóttir & Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson (2011). Climate and Energy Systems – Project Structure. In: Þorsteinn Þorsteinsson & Halldór Björnsson (eds.), Climate Change and Energy Systems. Impacts
/about-imo/arctic/completed-projects/publications/
the contiguous USA. 30th Annual Applied Geography Conference, Indianapolis, October 2007. 10 pp.
Clausen, N.-E., Lundsager, P., Barthelmie, R., Holttinen, H., Laakso, T. & Pryor, S.C. (2007). Wind Power. In: J. Fenger (Ed.) Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources: Their role in the Nordic energy system, Nord 2007:003, 105-128.
Clausen N.E., Pryor S.C., Larsén X.G., Hyvönen R
/ces/publications/nr/1944
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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13
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(
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Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
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CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf