inty in decision making linking pluriform uncertainty combining certified and tacit knowledge
Tommy Chan Mich el Laiho Patrick Driscoll Kare Lundgren Hector Guin a Barrientos
Eivind Junker Jussi Ylhäisi Athanasios Votsis
Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola Yuang Zheng Väi ö Nurmi Jiao Xi nj Wejs
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/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
& Ólafsson, H. (2010). Validation of numerical simulations of precipitation in complex terrain at high temporal resolution. Hydrology Research, 41 (3-4), 164-170.
Christensen, J.H., Boberg, F., Christensen, O.B. & Lucas-Picher, P. (2008), On the need for bias correction of regional climate change projections of temperature and precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20709, doi:10.1029/2008GL035694
/ces/publications/nr/1680
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Conference on Future Climate and Renewable Energy:
Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
Oslo
June, 1, 2010
Runoff projections and impacts on water
resources
Outline of this talk
1) Projected runoff changes over the next
century – the global and continental
picture
2) Downscaling to the regional
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
Identification of Major Sources of Uncertainty in Current
IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin
P. van der Keur & H. J. Henriksen & J. C. Refsgaard &
M. Brugnach & C. Pahl-Wostl & A. Dewulf & H. Buiteveld
Received: 13 December 2006 / Accepted: 10 January 2008
# Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
Abstract Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) can be viewed as a complex
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
Tengö, D. Timmer,
and M. Zurek. 2007. Linking futures across scales:
a dialog on multiscale scenarios. Ecology and
Society 12(1): 17. [online] URL: http://www.ecolog
yandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art17/.
Borgatti, S. P., and P. C. Foster. 2003. The network
paradigm in organizational research: a review and
typology. Journal of Management 29(6):991-1013.
Brenner, N. 2001. The limits to scale
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
Capacity (A)
F
r
e
q
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n
c
y
control
future
+0.4std dev (as % of
mean)
-0.68max
-8.32min
-1.74mean
% change
June 2010 15
Time series
450
500
550
600
650
700
Hour
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
A
)
Typical year of control period
Seasonal average rating
Calculated capacity
450
500
550
600
650
700
Hour
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
A
)
Typical year under future scenario
Calculated capacity
Seasonal average
/media/ces/Cradden_Lucy_CES_2010.pdf
Results
W
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m
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Max snow depth
Trend slope
Number of snow days
Period II
P
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r
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d
I
I
I
Max snow depth Number of snow days
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Correlation analysis (1961-08)
138 mutual stations
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Correlation with
winter
temperature
Correlation with
winter
precipitation
In warmer regions both snow
parameters
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
In collaboration with Ragnar Slunga, his most important contributions were in automatic estimation of fault-plane solutions for microearthquakes by inverting observed polarities and spectral amplitudes of P- and S-waves, and in relative locations of microearthquakes. Sigurður’s research thus demonstrated that microearthquakes contain information about large-scale tectonic processes.
During his student years
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/conferences/jsr-2009/sigurdur/
In collaboration with Ragnar Slunga, his most important contributions were in automatic estimation of fault-plane solutions for microearthquakes by inverting observed polarities and spectral amplitudes of P- and S-waves, and in relative locations of microearthquakes. Sigurður’s research thus demonstrated that microearthquakes contain information about large-scale tectonic processes.
During his student years
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/conferences/jsr-2009/sigurdur