Scales as mentioned in Cash et al. (2006)
space time juris. inst. man. netw. know. other
Van Apeldoorn et al. 2011 XXX
Mandemaker et al. 2011 XXXX
Van der Veen and Tagel 2011 XXX
De Blaeij et al. 2011 XXXX (spatial) beneficiaries,
ecosystem services
Turnhout and Boonman-Berson 2011 XX
Van Lieshout et al. 2011 XX agricultural
juris. = jurisdictional
inst. = institutional
man
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
was deployed and together with the permanent NNSN stations in that area it contained 33+
stations within span 350 x 200 km. About 1250 earthquakes of M>0.0 was recorded during the project
period and new map of seismicity of that area was retrieved.
The main aim of the project is to reveal the stress field in that particular region and therefore
determination of stable
/media/norsem/norsem_michalek.pdf
a probability of an
adverse event occurring and a measure of the
associated event. Larger consequence and larger
probability lead to a larger overall risk (e.g. Risk =
Probability x Damage)
Conclusions – Part 1
Terminology
• Be aware of ambiguities in terminology used by others –
and be specific defining the terminology you use
Concepts
• Uncertainty assessment should influence the entire
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
-scale Category
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Permanent Homes
Casualties and Timing
Casualties and Time of Day
150
200
250
I
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x
V
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Fatalities
0
50
100
Overnight Morning Early Afternoon Late Afternoon Late Evening
I
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V
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Injuries
Nocturnal Tornadoes
7
8
9
10
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2
3
4
5
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F0 F1 F2 F3 F4
F
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
model
regional projections.
• Development of multiple 50-km regional
climate scenarios for use in impacts
assessments.
• Evaluation of regional model performance
over North America.
www.narccap.ucar.edu
50-km Grid
GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM
MM5 X X1
RegCM X1** X
CRCM X1** X
HADRM X X1
RSM X1 X
WRF X X1
Red = run completed
Drawbacks of dynamical downscaling
• Requires postprocessing for bias
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
– observed and simulated changes in global mean
temperature
• Pattern scaling approach
– changes in mean climate and variability assumed to be
proportional to the change in global mean temperature
Regression coefficients of winter mean
temperature: how much is climate on the average
simulated to change per 1°C of global warming?
XX
Helsinki (60ºN, 25ºE): On average, the mean winter temperature
/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf
and objective
CES Conference, Oslo 31.5.-2.6.2010
Study area
• Two study areas sized 100 x 100 km located in
north-eastern (NE) and south-western (SW) part
of Finland
• Climatologically different zones:
• NE:
• between middle- and north-boreal zones
• continental climate
• SW:
• between hemi- and south-boreal zones
• maritime influence
• Past and future monthly precipitation sums in
May-September
/media/ces/TietavainenHanna_CES_2010.pdf
in estimating the height of the plume. At this time, the plume reached heights of 8 - 12 km.
During the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the weather radar proved to be a very useful tool, but the great distance to the eruption site (160 km) reduced the quality of the data. Therefore, a mobile X-band weather radar was purchased, but while this custom made radar was being assembled and tested, another
/about-imo/news/nr/2183
climate changes between the CMIP3 and ENSEMBLES
simulations 15
4. Impact of RCM data on forecasts of climate change 18
5. Probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.1 Best estimates and uncertainty ranges of temperature and precipitation change 24
5.2 How probably will temperature increase (precipitation change) by at least X°C (Y%)?
28
6. Conclusions 34
References
/media/ces/D2.3_CES_Prob_fcsts_GCMs_and_RCMs.pdf
September 2014. The gray line represents relative displacement and the blue line the median value for 180 minutes. Earthquakes in the area are shown separately below (same x-axis, same timing). Enlarge.
The first two weeks as an example
Total subsidence from 12 Sept 2014 until 1 March 2015
The total subsidence of the glacier surface above the Bárðarbunga caldera since the equipment
/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/