ECHAM4/OPYC3 NorClim/HIRHAM 25x25 km
'Empirical Adjustment' to 1 x 1 km
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2021-2050 GEV from annual max series
2021 - 2050 Annual maximum series
1981 - 2010 Annual maximum series
1981-2010
200-year flood
2021
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
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/media/loftslag/Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
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Population density
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/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
TS.1b, TS.2b}
Global anthropogenic GHG emissions
F-gases
CO2 from fossil fuel use and other sources
CH4 from agriculture, waste and energy
CO2 from deforestation, decay and peat
N2O from agriculture and others
GtC
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2-eq / y
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28.7
35.6
39.4
44.7
49.0
The largest growth in
GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004
has come from energy supply, transport and industry, while resi-
dential and commercial
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
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/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
- nitrate reduction in underground medium medium large large large
Model technical uncertainty
- numerical approximation small small medium small
- bugs in software medium medium small
SUM:
Importance Type of uncertainty
Error propagation
Box 1 Error propagation rules using standard deviation (σ )
Addition and Subtraction: z = x + y + .. or z = x - y - ..
..)()( 22 ++= yxz σσσ
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
) and Jónsdóttir (2008).
Therefore, comparison of measured and simulated water balance cannot be di-
rectly used for validation of the model-generated precipitation. According to the
non-scaled MM5 output for the period 1961–1990, mean precipitation for the
whole of Iceland was 1790 mm y−1. After scaling the precipitation, this value
was reduced to 1750mm y−1, i.e. by approximately 2%. This difference
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf