Assessment Re-
port (AR4).
Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their ef-
fects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while
Topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 pre-
sents projections of future climate change and related impacts un-
der different scenarios.
Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the
next few decades
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
systematically underestimated. The bias is not as pronounced for the non glacial rivers. Com-
bining synoptic-scale and basin-scale predictors (method 3) leads to a substantial improvement
compared to the use of MSLP fields alone (method 1). Analogue forecasts become similar or
better than persistence, depending on catchment and lead time. Usually, persistence performs
better for T=1 day and then method 3/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf
to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks.
Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario
methods.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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E-mail address: kasper.kok@wur.nl.
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Global Environmental Change
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/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf