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8
76.
2
76.
6
2070–99
Water level (m
)
Water level (m
)
Water level (m
)
Month Month Month
(c)
(d) (e) (f)
(g) (h) (i)
Fig. 4 Average daily water level (m) in Lake Pielinen (a–c), Lake Syväri (d–f) and Lake Saimaa (g–i)
in the reference period (blue) and in 2010–2039 (left), 2040–2069 (middle) and 2070–2099 (right). The
results are with unmodified regulations and 12 GCM climate scenarios (red
/media/ces/Water_resources_man_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
2050s 2080s
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
r
a
t
i
n
g
(
%
)
10%
50%
90%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
r
a
t
i
n
g
(
%
)
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
r
a
t
i
n
g
(
%
)
Each bar
shows
range over
whole UK
spatial
area
June 2010 13
Is the impact similar over the
whole UK?
• Changes in the summer minimum rating, i.e.
worst-case conditions – max temperature:
Rating at baseline period 1961
/media/ces/Cradden_Lucy_CES_2010.pdf
level in Skeidará waned. The last sign of a
crater explosion was seen at GRF early on 6
November, leaving only a weak tremor signal
from the remnants of the jökulhlaup. The
jökulhlaup fi nally ended in early December,
after ~0.8 km3 of water had drained from the
Grímsvötn lake (J. Hardardóttir, personal com-
munication, 2005).
Location and Volume Constraints
Earthquake locations at Grímsvötn
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
frequency during the last 1100 years is 1 eruption per 50 years on average.
Eruptions on the ice covered part of the system have the potential to cause major floods in several rivers flowing
southwards and northwards from the Vatnajökull ice cap.
_________________________________________________________________________
Central volcano: Bárðarbunga
Lat, lon: 68°38´N, 17°31´W
Elevation: 2009
/media/jar/Bardarbunga_kafli20140825.pdf
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ 32
References .............................................................................................................................. 32
I Appendix – the local moment magnitude ............................................................................ 34
II
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
Macroseismology in Finland from the 1730s to the 2000s:
From an obligation of the learned elite to citizen science
Päivi Mäntyniemi
Institute of Seismology, Department of Geosciences and Geography, P.O. Box 68, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland,
e-mail: paivi.mantyniemi@helsinki.fi
The presentation is based on a snapshot of macroseismology in Finland from the 1730s to the 2000s
that has
/media/norsem/norsem_mantyniemi.pdf
Permanent snow
cover
Snow depth
Aug Jun
Maximum snow depth
Accumulative winter precipitation
Number of snow days
(snow depth > 0)
Snow season duration
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Simulated
temperature &
precipitation
Observed
snow depth
Time series
• Period I: 1931-60
– 55 stations
• Period II: 1961-90
– 298 stations
• Period III: 1979
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
Change 19 (2009) 122–133
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 14 November 2007
Received in revised form 21 August 2008
Accepted 25 August 2008
Keywords:
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Scenario
Participation
Resilience
Brazil
A B S T R A C T
The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and
quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf