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(both human and non-human), 4) magnitude-what are the magnitudes of
impact that are expected to occur, 5) ignorance-what don’t we know and are which areas
are reducible through better/more knowledge and which are inherently unknowable and
6) range of impacts-what are the upper and lower boundary ranges of the projected
impacts.
2.0 Scoping
Problem context: Table 1 below highlights some
/media/loftslag/Group4.pdf
a near-zero pre-industrial background concentration,
primarily due to human activities. {WGI 2.3, SPM; SROC SPM}
There is very high confidence that the global average net
effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warm-
ing, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2
(Figure 2.4). {WGI 2.3, 6.5, 2.9, SPM}
The combined radiative forcing due to increases in CO2, CH4
and N2O
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
1998] and RCM output such
as incoming and outgoing, short- and long-wave radiation,
temperature, water vapor pressure, and wind speed:
ETref ¼
0:408D Rn Gð Þ þ g 900T þ 273 u2 es eað Þ
Dþ g 1þ 0:34u2ð Þ ð3Þ
where ETref is reference evapotranspiration (mm d1), Rn is
net radiation at the crop surface (MJ m2 d1), G is soil heat
flux density (MJ m2 d1), T is mean daily air temperature
at 2 m
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
anomalies of the WTs during the periods leading up to the five
most severe droughts as compared to the average frequency of a given WT for the same
period of the year over the entire data record. A period equal to dreg preceding the drought
plus the 20 first days of the drought was used. All WTs with a net positive frequency anomaly
over the five events were considered to be associated
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
961–975, 2011
966 G. Aðalgeirsdóttir et al.: 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier
Table 1. Specific winter (bw), summer (bs) and net balance (bn) for
Hoffellsjökull in mw.e. a−1. A conservative error estimate is on the
order of 15–20 % for both bw and bs.
Glacier year bw bs bn
1935–1936 2.0 −3.4 −1.4
1936–1937 2.4 −2.1 0.3
1937–1938 1.7 −2.4 −0.6
2000–2001 2.0 −2.1 −0.1
2001
/media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
increased net precipitation and increased rainfall intensity put pressure on the sewage
system and the lake dam. Flooding of the town is expected to occur more frequently. Future flooding
storms could be as high as 2,5 meters.
The challenges have been divided into two main themes: sea level change and rainfall.
NONAM Risk Assessment and Stakeholder Investment. Multidisciplinary Workshop
/media/loftslag/CASE_A___Jes_Pedersen_(Region_Midt,_Dk)_Introduction.pdf
increased net precipitation and increased rainfall intensity put pressure on the sewage
system and the lake dam. Flooding of the town is expected to occur more frequently. Future flooding
storms could be as high as 2,5 meters.
The challenges have been divided into two main themes: sea level change and rainfall.
NONAM Risk Assessment and Stakeholder Investment. Multidisciplinary Workshop
/media/loftslag/Case_A___Horsens_Fjord.pdf
fiord area. Adaptive challenges due to changes in regional groundwater level
An increase in sea level will cause more frequent flooding in the town due to its low lying position by
the fjord. In 2006, the local town hall was flooded when sea level rose to 1.76 m above normal.
Simultaneously, increased net precipitation and increased rainfall intensity put pressure on the sewage
system
/media/loftslag/Horsens_case.pdf
NONAM PhD course – Adaptive management in relation to climate change – Copenhagen 21-26/8/2011
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
1
Outline for the case Road maintenance in a changing climate
Introduction
Roads and transport systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts (VTT 2011; Koetse and
Rietveld, 2009; Regmi & Hanaoka, 2011; Road ERA-net 2009 & 2010
/media/loftslag/Outline_for_the_case_Road_maintenance_in_a_changing_climate.pdf