WaSiM-ETH (Schulla and Jasper, 2007; Atladóttir et al.,
2011; Þórarinsdóttir, 2012) was calibrated on 4 gauged catchments (vhm19, vhm38, vhm51
and vhm52). A semi-automatic multi-objective optimization based on the analysis of discharge
information was used to assist in the selection of best model parameters for each catchment
(Crochet, 2012d). The model was then used to simulate daily streamflow
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
in a historical archive, according to certain atmospheric
variables and some analogy criteria. Then, the dates of the N best analogues, i.e. the N closest
matches to the target situation are extracted and sorted, and a meteorological ensemble pre-
diction is formed, with the precipitation and temperature sample, observed on these days (N
members):
P(i; t) = P(ui) (1)
T2m(i; t) = T2m(ui) (2)
where t = t0
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greater demands on stakeholders, because they
must monitor decisions and the decision-making process over
the time of the life of the project
– Because decisions are always tentative, it may also increase or
extend controversy and conflict
– It may require trading the anticipated best outcome in the
short term for long-term learning and improvement
Discussion (2) When is adaptive
management
/media/loftslag/Henriksen-AM.pdf
agreement on use of
terminology.
Third, all scoping papers stress that there is no silver
bullet solution, with a different view on both scale
and governance being appropriate depending on the
specific case. Buizer et al. (2011) are strongest on
this view by presenting and discussing a framework.
Termeer et al. (2010) confirm that there is no best
governance approach, drawing an analogue
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
the respective WG reports.
Unless otherwise stated, numerical ranges given in square brackets in this report indicate 90% uncertainty intervals (i.e. there is an
estimated 5% likelihood that the value could be above the range given in square brackets and 5% likelihood that the value could be below that
range). Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric around the best estimate.
1
Observed changes
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in what terms uncertainty can best be
scribed. The vertical axis identifies the location or source
external economic, environmental, political, social and
technological circumstances that form the context of the
problem.
Input uncertainty in terms of external driving forces
(within or outside the control of the water manager) and
system data that drive the model such as land use maps,
Certainty
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point measurements and surface profiles surveyed by
kinematic GPS, and further corrected with airborne radar
altimetry profiles from October 2004.
Autumn aerial photographs: 20 m contour lines digitized
using the best available aerial photographs from: 1979
for Torfajökull, 1980 for Tindfjallajökull and 1984 for
Eyjafjallajökull. Regular 40x40 m DEMs created by a
kriging method.
Maps of annual
/media/ces/glacier_mass_balance_poster.pdf
with expectations of predictability,
indiscrimination etc. But is this compatible with the best strategies for handling uncertainty? What if new
knowledge prescribes a decision contrary to one that has already been made? Should the need for legal
certainty and predictability prevail?
2) What is the best way to distribute roles and responsibilities between scientists, politicians
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
are
developing plans for their local communities
to adapt to climate change will not be best
served by a model whose horizontal grid has
divisions measured in hundreds of kilome-
ters. To facilitate information transfer in both
directions between climate science and water
management, the climate models need to
include more explicit and faithful representa-
tion of surface- and ground-water processes
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
to a subset of near-by events from the
event library via cross-correlation of P and S waveforms. The relative times are inverted for
best location, resulting in a high-precision automatic location for the new event available
within minutes. As more waveforms arrive, the process is repeated to improve the location.
The location accuracy that can be achieved is from tens of meters to a few hundred meters
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