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to theoretical framework. I do also want to thank him for an
enjoyable time during this work, both in the office and in the field.
This work was carried out as a part of the Skaftá cauldrons research project which
was funded and supported by the Icelandic Centre For Research (RANNÍS), Kvískerja-
sjóður, the NASA Astrobiology Institute, Landsvirkjun (the National Power Com-
pany), the National Energy
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf
which are significantly lower com-
pared with similar beginning and end years. Consequently, for the 2004–50 period, the average
RCM warming rates of 0.29 K per decade over the ocean, and 0.35 K per decade over the land are
somewhat larger than for the reduced IPCC ensemble mean.
Additionally, the tabulated values of SAT differences between the 1961–90 control period and
either the 2021–50
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
This is also the case with
cyclones in all three sectors. Cyclones in the eastern or western sector are also strongly affected
by the presence of central cyclones. In both sectors, cyclones tend to move east, unless there are
cyclones in the neighbouring sector, in which case pressure tendencies are reversed.
21
Figure 10. Composite mean temporal MSLP tendencies, for different MSLP modes. Com-
posite mean
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_005.pdf
by
rescaling a dimensionless regional flood frequency distribution or growth curve, qR(D;T ), com-
mon to all sites of the homogeneous region, with the so-called index flood, µi(D), of the target
site:
bQi(D;T ) = µi(D)qR(D;T ); (1)
where bQi(D;T ) is the estimated flood quantile, i.e. the T -year flood peak discharge averaged
over duration D, at site i. The regional growth curve, qR(D;T
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
support
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/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks.
Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario
methods.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
* Tel.: +31 317 482422; fax: +31 317 419000.
E-mail address: kasper.kok@wur.nl.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Global Environmental Change
journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
Such landslides fall from a comparatively high
elevation, cause extensive disruption and upheaval of loose materials and soils in their
way, and can travel considerable distances uphill against opposing slopes.
Secondly, there are medium-sized or large, rapid debris flows that are released from com-
paratively high elevations and are confined to gullies as they travel down the mountain-
side, similar
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2016/VI_2016_006_rs.pdf
systematically underestimated. The bias is not as pronounced for the non glacial rivers. Com-
bining synoptic-scale and basin-scale predictors (method 3) leads to a substantial improvement
compared to the use of MSLP fields alone (method 1). Analogue forecasts become similar or
better than persistence, depending on catchment and lead time. Usually, persistence performs
better for T=1 day and then method 3
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf
the com-
plexity of the hydrological processes through modelling, but its application is usually limited to
the short-range. Although the results demonstrated a great potential for this method, its success-
ful application in real-time will strongly depend on the quality and availability of streamflow
observations, which can be poor or simply missing during periods of variable durations, e.g
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_006.pdf