systematically underestimated. The bias is not as pronounced for the non glacial rivers. Com-
bining synoptic-scale and basin-scale predictors (method 3) leads to a substantial improvement
compared to the use of MSLP fields alone (method 1). Analogue forecasts become similar or
better than persistence, depending on catchment and lead time. Usually, persistence performs
better for T=1 day and then method 3
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf
the com-
plexity of the hydrological processes through modelling, but its application is usually limited to
the short-range. Although the results demonstrated a great potential for this method, its success-
ful application in real-time will strongly depend on the quality and availability of streamflow
observations, which can be poor or simply missing during periods of variable durations, e.g
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_006.pdf
tg
ui
da
n
ce
fo
rt
ra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
w
at
er
s,
pr
ep
ar
ed
an
d
P. van der Keur et al.
(floo
dmanag
ement
)an
d
wat
er
qualit
y
ag
re
ed
u
po
n
in
co
m
m
o
n
u
n
de
rs
ta
nd
in
g,
creat
ed
th
e
bas
is
fo
rth
e
formul
atio
n
o
f
joi
nt
m
ea
su
re
s
(Fr
ijte
rs
an
d
Le
en
tv
aa
r
200
3)
Mo
del
s
(na
tural
,te
chnica
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
Uncert
aint
y
ha
s
to
be
incorp
orated
:
1:
Ep
ist
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
Delta Change Method
(correction of observed precipitation)
Transformation of precipitation
cont
fut
obsfut M
M
PP =
Observeret n dbør
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1-12-99 11-12-99 21-12-99 31-12-99
Dato
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret
Skal ring af e
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4
- - - -
t
N
ed
bø
r
(m
m
/d
ag
)
Observeret D lta Change
Critical assumption:
Future dynamics = present dynamics
No change in number
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_2-uncertainty.pdf
sr
el
at
ed
to
ag
ric
ul
tu
re
in
D
en
m
ar
k
Cl
im
at
e
ch
an
ge
im
pa
ct
Adaptatio
n
Typ
e
o
f
proble
m
Conse
quenc
e
Ris
k
leve
l
Dom
inatin
g
uncertaint
y
Optio
n
Cos
t
leve
l
Inten
t
Actio
n
Tempora
l
scop
e
Spatia
l
scop
e
Additiona
luncertaint
y
Sou
rc
e
Natur
e
Sourc
e
Natur
e
In
cr
ea
se
d
su
m
m
er
drought
san
d
highe
r
w
at
er
re
qu
ire
m
en
ts
caus
e
by
longe
rcro
p
growt
h
durat
io
n
/media/loftslag/2012-Refsgaard_etal-uncertainty_climate-change-adaptation-MITI343.pdf
meðallagi á árinu. Mikið norðanóveður gekk yfir landið dagana 10. til 11. desember sem
olli miklu tjóni. Verst var veðrið á Ströndum, Norðurlandi vestra og Norðurlandi eystra. Mikil ísing og fannfergi fylgdu
óveðrinu sem olli því að hundrað hross fennti í kaf, skemmdir urðu á rafmagnslínum með tilheyrandi rafmagnstruflun-
um og mikil röskun varð á samgöngum.
NÁTTÚRUFAR
Hl
ut
fal
l m
eð
all
ag
s
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_arsskyrsla2020.pdf