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  • 11. PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final

    et al. (2010) von Korff et al. (2010) Methods: Hare et al. (2006) Hare et al. (2005) Kaner (2007) Lunch 13:30 - 15:00 Scenario development - an introduction to concepts, methods and tools KK Kok and Veldkamp (2011) Kok et al. (2011) Kok (2009) Kok and van Delden (2009) 15:00 - 16:30 Risk perception LE Lorenzoni and Pidgeon (2006) Stern (2000) Coffee 16:30 - 18:00 PhD /media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
  • 12. GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen

    ). Meteorological observations carried out on Storbreen in the summer of 1955 (Liestøl1967) revealed that net radiation is the most impor-tant contributor to the ablation at Storbreen. An au-tomatic weather station (AWS) has bee operatedin the ablation zone of Storbreen since September2001 providing a near-continuous series of meteor- ology and surface energy balance data. Analysis ofthe first five years /media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
  • 13. Literature and papers

    Eriksson_Garvill_Nordlund_2006 Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change IPPC-2007-ar4_syr Kok&VanDelden_E&PB_2009 Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160 Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011 Kok_JGEC658_2009 Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006 Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science Moellenkampetal_etal-2010 /nonam/phd-summerschool/material/literature-papers/
  • 14. IPPC-2007-ar4_syr

    a near-zero pre-industrial background concentration, primarily due to human activities. {WGI 2.3, SPM; SROC SPM} There is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warm- ing, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2 (Figure 2.4). {WGI 2.3, 6.5, 2.9, SPM} The combined radiative forcing due to increases in CO2, CH4 and N2O /media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
  • 15. Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB

    -corrected SPOT 5 high-resolution geometric (HRG) images with 2.5 m 2.5 m spatial resolution, acquired in the autumn 2003 and (4) airborne polarimetric synthetic aperture radar images observed simultaneously to the 1998 EMISAR images and the EMISAR DEM viewed as a shaded relief image (Magnu´sson et al. 2005b). We estimate the average specific net mass balance (in m yr1 w. eq.) as bn r DV A1  N /media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf
  • 16. Group4

    ); new long-term investment strategy prioritizing low- or zero-net carbon forms of mobility 2040 Modal shift in logistics chains, especially within heavy industry. 3.3 Backcasting scenario narrative Low-Impact Mobility Project Evaluation (LIMPE) Climate change is occurring. Is it natural or anthropogenic? It doesn’t matter. Even though the future is inherently uncertain, one certainty /media/loftslag/Group4.pdf
  • 17. vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760

    1998] and RCM output such as incoming and outgoing, short- and long-wave radiation, temperature, water vapor pressure, and wind speed: ETref ¼ 0:408D Rn  Gð Þ þ g 900T þ 273 u2 es  eað Þ Dþ g 1þ 0:34u2ð Þ ð3Þ where ETref is reference evapotranspiration (mm d1), Rn is net radiation at the crop surface (MJ m2 d1), G is soil heat flux density (MJ m2 d1), T is mean daily air temperature at 2 m /media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
  • 18. Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2

    Kasper Kok – Wageningen University, the Netherlands NONAM PhD course - Copenhagen, 22-26 August 2011 Scenario development Concept and examples Scenario development in two lectures Lecture 1 – Monday 22 August, 13:00-14:15 Background, overarching issues, concepts, definitions, tools • Complex Systems • Tools and methods to analyse complex systems • Scenarios Lecture 2 – Wednesday 24 August, 10:15 /media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
  • 19. NONAM-PhD_program

    - risk management - Part 2 Eriksson Exercise work - how to combine into a general adaptive management framework PhD students 10:45 - 11:00 Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee Coffee 11:00 - 12:45 Stakeholder involvement methodologies - Part 1 Hare Exercise work PhD students Scenario building methodologies - Part 2 Kok Uncertainty - concepts and tools - Part 2 Refsgaard Case in adaptive management /media/vedurstofan/NONAM-PhD_program.pdf
  • 20. ces-oslo2010_proceedings

    anomalies of the WTs during the periods leading up to the five most severe droughts as compared to the average frequency of a given WT for the same period of the year over the entire data record. A period equal to dreg preceding the drought plus the 20 first days of the drought was used. All WTs with a net positive frequency anomaly over the five events were considered to be associated /media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf

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