the model. Usually, the model
is run within a graphical user interface (GUI) where many
tasks have been automated.
STEP 4 (calibration and validation). This step is con-
cerned with the process of analysing the model that was
constructed during the previous step, first by calibrating
the model, and then by validating its performance against
independent field data. Finally, the reliability of model
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
lake within the
caldera until the surrounding ice is breached.
When that happens, water escapes to cause a
jökulhlaup in the river Skeidará, after having
traveled ~50 km beneath the Skeidarárjökull
outlet glacier (Figure 1b). Jökulhlaups occur
there every 1–10 years and last from days to
weeks, each time releasing 0.4–4 km3 of water
[Björnsson, 2002]. Volcanic eruptions in Gríms-
vötn often
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
a systematic com-
parison of results to observed precipitation has been carried out. Un-
dercatchment of solid precipitation is dealt with by looking only at
days when precipitation is presumably liquid or by considering the
occurrence and non-occurrence of precipitation. Away from non-
resolved orography, the long term means (months, years) of observed
and simulated precipitation are often
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf
have a consider-
able impact in an area where surface runoff is the dominant
process, but have a smaller impact on groundwater-fed
systems. Owing to the heterogeneity of the meteorological
conditions and the heterogeneous physiographical condi-
tions, climate and land use change impact studies on
hydrology often have a local to regional character.
[4] The majority of hydrological climate change
/media/loftslag/vanRoosmalen_etal-2009-WRR_2007WR006760.pdf
and our intention is to run these models dur-
ing times of hazardous events and even on a daily
basis to further improve monitoring.
Avalanche monitoring has progressed. The em-
phasis is now on improving our services, especially
to the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration
with regard to transport. The reason is that com-
munity structure has changed considerably in recent
years and the need
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
4
Contents
1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 7
2 Study area and data ..................................................................................... 7
2.1 River basins .......................................................................................... 7
2.2 Streamflow data
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
2007a, b). BNs were tested in a recent EU
research project MERIT (Bromley, 2005; www.merit-
eu.net) 2001–2004, and this tool is currently considered in
Uncer
wate
NeWa
an
tainty is a central theme in integrated and adaptive
r management, where different disciplines need to be
Monitor and evaluate outcomes; apply learning to
develop a better understanding of the system.
(4)
Implement policies;(3
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