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26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 18
Uncertainty 3 – (partial) remedies
• Retrospective and prospective approaches
• (statistical) sensitivity analysis (data; parameters)
• error propagation analysis (how deviations develop in a model)
• benchmarking (accuracy compared to other models
/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf
at the operational/local level.
A calibrated approach (standardized questionnaires and
interviews, expert judgment, and reinterpretation of out-
comes by means of relevant literature) was used to com-
pare the state of affairs in water management in the
selected case-studies.
Adaptive and integrated water management
Given the expected increase of climate-related extreme
events, water governance capabilities
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf
& Höskuldsson, 2008; Thordarson & Larsen,
2007). Highly active volcanic systems as Hekla, Katla, Bárðarbunga and Grímsvötn, have
explosive eruptions rates of 82%, 97%, 90% and 95%, respectively (Gudmundsson & Larsen,
2016; Larsen & Gudmundsson, 2016b, 2016a; Larsen & Thordarson, 2016). Volcanic eruptions
are quite common in Iceland and occur on average every two to five years (Larsen & Eiríksson
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_004.pdf
(-33%) during 1970 to 2004 has been smaller than the com-
bined effect of global income growth (77%) and global population
growth (69%); both drivers of increasing energy-related CO2 emis-
sions. The long-term trend of declining CO2 emissions per unit of en-
ergy supplied reversed after 2000. {WGIII 1.3, Figure SPM.2, SPM}
Differences in per capita income, per capita emissions and
energy
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
that a certain hypothesis was not investigated in
a certain paper.
Paper A B C D
Jóhannesson et al. (2007) ? Opposite true True True
Ministry for the Environment (2008) True True Inconclusive ?
Nawri and Björnsson (2010) True True True ?
Vavrus et al. (2012) ? True True ?
Koenigk et al. (2013) True True True Opposite true
Koenigk et al. (2015) True True True ?
This report (2016) True
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2017/VI_2017_009.pdf
Manage- Basic Purchase Road Road net- Const- Acquisi- Govern- Com- Participati- Value Miscel- Total 2009
ment and road of equip- system work post- ruction tion of ment missi- on of the added laneous cost
operating manage- ment develop- poned-, of land grants ons European tax over- level
costs ment ment comprehen- build- and com- Regional De- heads
1991- 1991- sive- and ings pensation
/media/loftslag/Traffc-maintenance_expenditures.pdf
/lexuriserv/lexuriserv.do?uri=com:2007:0002:FIN:EN:PDF, 13
April 2009.
[2] WTO, World Tourism Organization (2008): “Climate Change and Tourism -
Responding to Global Challenges”, UNWTO, 9 July 2008, Madrid, Spain.
Available at:
http://www.unwto.org/media/news/en/press_det.php?id=1411&idioma=E, 7
March 2010.
[3] Mooney, J.E. y Miller, M.L. (2009): “Climate change: Creating demand for
sustainable
/media/loftslag/ECONOMIC_EFFECTS_OF_CLIMATE_CHANGE_ON_THE_TOURISM_SECTOR_IN_SPAIN.pdf