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Results:

• 1. Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010

  100 15 17 19 21 23 25 Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day) P e r c e n t a g e b e l o w g i v e n v a l u e g39g72g79g87g68g3g70g75g68g81g74g72g3 g40g80g83g76g85g76g70g68g79g3g68g71g77g88g86g87g80g72g81g87 Percentage change in 200-year flood Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of sampled s urces N = 115 GCM/RCM = 50 EA/DC = 38 HBV = 27 • Differences in GCM/RCM tend to be more significant in inland /media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf

• 2. Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science

  Nature 438, 303 (2005). 8. J. Lu, G. A. Vecchi, T. Reichler, Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06805 (2007). 9. S. Manabe, R. J. Stouffer, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529 (1980). 10. P. S. Eagleson, in Scientific Basis of Water-Resource Management (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1982). 11. N. C. Matalas, in Global Change and Water Resources Management (Water Resources Update No. 112, Universities /media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf

• 3. Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change

  at the operational/local level. A calibrated approach (standardized questionnaires and interviews, expert judgment, and reinterpretation of out- comes by means of relevant literature) was used to com- pare the state of affairs in water management in the selected case-studies. Adaptive and integrated water management Given the expected increase of climate-related extreme events, water governance capabilities /media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf

• 4. Kok_JGEC658_2009

  to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks. Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario methods.  2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. * Tel.: +31 317 482422; fax: +31 317 419000. E-mail address: kasper.kok@wur.nl. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Global Environmental Change journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate /media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf

• 5. vonKorff_etal-2010

  /media/loftslag/vonKorff_etal-2010.pdf

• 6. Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management

  improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies. Partici- patory integrated assessment is here a form of problem structuring for identification of gaps, ambiguity and multiple frames, confrontation, and integration of the most divergent views with respect to a given problem situation. Additional methods and tools that AM require com /media/loftslag/Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management.pdf

• 7. Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS

  and possibly the stake- holders at different phases of the modelling project. Many QA guidelines exist such as Middlemis (2000) and Van Waveren et al. (1999). The HarmoniQuA project (Schol- ten et al., 2007; Refsgaard et al., 2005a) has developed a com- prehensive set of QA guidelines for multiple modelling domains combined with a supporting software tool, MoST (downloadable via http /media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf

• 8. Daniell_etal-2010

  /media/loftslag/Daniell_etal-2010.pdf

• 9. VI_2009_006_tt

  to theoretical framework. I do also want to thank him for an enjoyable time during this work, both in the office and in the field. This work was carried out as a part of the Skaftá cauldrons research project which was funded and supported by the Icelandic Centre For Research (RANNÍS), Kvískerja- sjóður, the NASA Astrobiology Institute, Landsvirkjun (the National Power Com- pany), the National Energy /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf

• 10. Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB

  /media/ces/Gudmundsson-etal-2011-PR-7282-26519-1-PB.pdf