period.
A new hazard zoning method was developed in Iceland after the snow avalanche accidents in 1995
and in 2000 a new regulation on avalanche hazard zoning was issued. The method and regulation are
based on individual risk, or annual probability of death due to avalanches. The major components of
the method are the estimation of avalanche frequency, run-out distribution
/media/loftslag/Tomas_Johannesson_(IMO,_Ice).pdf
Office
(IMO).
The better constrained earthquakes in the
SIL earthquake catalog of the IMO (~1/3
of total) tend to have location uncertainties of ~1.0 km, which is too high for the significance level
required.. To improve location accuracy of the IMO catalog, the relative earthquake location algorithm
of Waldhauser and Ellsworth (2000) (W&E) is being applied. The algorithm minimizes measured
/media/norsem/norsem_begga.pdf
the uncertainty mainly
comes from natural variability and differences between climate models.
DATA AND METHODS
The results shown here are based on simulations by 19 global climate models.
This so-called CMIP3 data set is described by Meehl et al. (2007).
The probabilistic forecasts are constructed using simulations for SRES A1B
scenario (Naki enovi and Swart 2000). A resampling technique
/media/ces/CES_D2_2_poster_3x3.pdf
a
l
y
(
°
C
)
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-20
-10
0
1
0
2
0
R
u
n
o
f
f
a
n
o
m
a
l
y
(
%
)
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
E
v
a
p
o
r
a
t
i
o
n
a
n
o
m
a
l
y
(
%
)
Large-scale atmospheric patterns
and hydroclimatological variables
Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns,
are more accurately assessed by Global
Climate Models than are local variations
/media/ces/ces_SA_group_flyer_new.pdf
growth
Carbon dioxide
concentration at
th t h
Regeneration
distribution, growth rate
of different species
Different tree e a mosp ere
Mortality
10
Input data
Finnish NFI data
• total 2816 permanent sample plots for the
whole of Finland (south: 1855; north: 961)
FMI - Climatic data
• Current climate (1971-2000)
• Changing climate during 2010-2099
(2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099)
A2
/media/ces/Alam_Ashraful_CES_2010.pdf
www.elsevier.com/locate/yjevp
evaluations of coercive and noncoercive TDM measures
Steg & Vlek, 1997), car users’ evaluations of the three
Widegren, 1998). In the value-belief-norm (VBN) theory of
environmentalism (Stern et al., 1999; see also Stern, 2000),
pro-environmental behavior is explained by a hierarchical
sequence of variables. According to the theory, values,
general environmental beliefs
/media/loftslag/Eriksson_Garvill_Nordlund_2006.pdf
and
watershed scale
Statistical downscaling
Dynamical downscaling
3) Hydrological and water resources
implications -- examples
4) Weak links and the path forward
1) Projected global and regional
runoff changes
Median runoff sensitivities per degree of global warming,
from 68 model pairs – 30-year model average runoff minus
1971-2000 model average (23 models, 3 global emissions
scenarios)
51
/media/ces/Lettenmaier_Dennis_CES_2010pdf.pdf
of the dyke and around the eruption site.
GPS measurements show continuing slow land depression towards the centre of Bardarbunga as has been the trend
over the last two weeks.
No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
Yesterday a high concentration of SO2 was measured around lake Myvatn (2000 microgram pr. cubic meter
/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20140925.pdf
monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
Yesterday a high concentration of SO2 was measured around lake Myvatn (2000 microgram pr. cubic meter) and last
night in Reydarfjordur (2600 microgram pr. cubic meter). The Environmental Agency of Iceland is waiting for
shipment of SO2 meters that will be put up around Iceland.
Pollution from the eruption is mostly
/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20140926.pdf
on the
Shifts of climatic
zones from
cooler or wetter
to warmer or
drier
(a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B
observational data set
(0.25º grid) from Haylock
et al. (2008)
(b-d) Based on CMIP3
GCM runs for A1B
& the delta-change
method
(c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B
Jylhä et al. (2010)
Uncertainties in climate change schematically
Observed
climate
Future
climate Natural
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf