et al. (2010)
von Korff et al. (2010)
Methods:
Hare et al. (2006)
Hare et al. (2005)
Kaner (2007)
Lunch
13:30 - 15:00 Scenario development - an introduction to
concepts, methods and tools
KK Kok and Veldkamp (2011)
Kok et al. (2011)
Kok (2009)
Kok and van Delden (2009)
15:00 - 16:30 Risk perception LE Lorenzoni and Pidgeon (2006)
Stern (2000)
Coffee
16:30 - 18:00 PhD
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
and the
humanities is needed.
Scale
Scales and scaling as determining factors behind
many environmental problems have become
prominent issues in recent literature (Gibson et al.
2000, Cash et al. 2006, Verburg et al. 2006, Kok et
al. 2007). Among scientists and policy makers alike,
awareness has grown that current environmental
problems manifest themselves at various scales and
that action should account
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
: Integrated water resources management; Water framework directive; Catchment modelling; Uncertainty
1. Introduction
New guidelines on water resources management emphasise
the importance of integrated approaches, cross-sectoral plan-
ning and of public participation (GWP, 2000; EC, 2003;
Jønch-Clausen, 2004). The commonly accepted approach inte-
grated water resources management (IWRM) is defined
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
and to evaluate
the need for further and more detailed case studies.
2. Study area
2.1. Climate and hydrology in Finland
The climate of Finland is controlled by several factors such as
latitudinal gradient, maritime climate from the Atlantic Ocean
and continental climate from Eurasia, the Scandinavian mountain
range and the Baltic Sea (Atlas of Finland, 1987; Käyhkö, 2004).
In 1971–2000 the average
/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf
human and ecological systems
are increasingly influenced by public or stakeholder
participation, which we will call “participation” in
this article. International agreements such as the
1992 Rio Declaration or the 1998 Aarhus
Convention, European legislation such as the 2000
Water Framework Directive, and national
regulations, e.g., for France (Roche 2003), demand
the involvement of the affected
/media/loftslag/vonKorff_etal-2010.pdf
such processes as lobbying from
influential regional or local actors (Rhodes 2000). Initiatives may also manifest at the national
level as a result of state commitments under international conventions that bind states to
decision-making that originates elsewhere. Within the EU context, states have also agreed to
be bound by EU legislation, so that directives taken on the EU level directly
/media/loftslag/Keskitalo_et_al-MLG_and_adaptation_FINAL.pdf
% of the recorded lightning strikes in Iceland were
volcanic in origin, but note that this number is greatly influenced by one eruption, Grímsvötn
2011.
Table 1 summarises the located lightning by the ATDnet system during volcanic eruptions in
Iceland 1998‒2011 (the Hekla 2000 data are from the local LLP system). The date and time
of the initiation of the eruption is given, and the time from the initiation
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_006.pdf
) that a volcanic eruption
seemed inevitable.
Multidisciplinary Monitoring
of the Eruption
At 1930 UTC on 1 November, seismicity in-
creased again. By 2000 UTC, earthquakes were
continuously occurring and seismic tremor on
nearby stations soared (Figure 3), suggesting
the beginning of a volcanic eruption.
On this premise, IMO sent a warning at 2010
UTC to the NCPA and OACC that a subglacial
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
to create a
mathematical model of human behavior and
then examine how the model responds to
changes in some of the variables in the model.
Hurricane Market Mitigation
Study - Theory
• Basic Theory: Dixit (1990), Optimization in
Economic Theory.
Result: With full insurance, there is no value to
mitigation.
• Modified Theory: Simmons and Kruse (2000),
Journal of Economics.
Result: Assuming
/media/loftslag/FMI_-_Disaster_Mitigation.pdf
fatalities occurred in
mobile homes,
although only 7.6% of
U.S. housing units in
2000.
• A one standard
deviation in the
proportion of mobile
homes in housing stock
(8.3 percentage
points) increases
fatalities by 36% and
injuries by 18%.
The Mobile Home Problem
50
60
70
80
90
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o
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y
F
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i
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s
Mobile Homes
0
10
20
30
40
F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
F
/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf