This was made possible by taking advan-
tage of the OSU land surface model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001).
VERIFICATION OF SIMULATED PRECIPITATION
Rögnvaldsson et al. (2007) simulated atmospheric flow over Iceland for the
period September 1987 through June 2003 using version 3–5–3 of MM5 driven
by initial and boundary data from the ECMWF. The simulated precipitation was
compared with two types of indirect
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_91.pdf
: 50 m a.s.l. (1980 – 2006)
Accumulation, Mass Balance
• Burgess et al., 2010 (1980 – 2006)
• Stake network Paakitsoq (1982-1992) 5 / 16
6 / 16
data and test site
7 / 16
mass balance model
7 /
simple energy balance model (based on Oerlemans, 2001)
• numerical at daily steps
• melt water retention (Reeh, 1991)
• model input: 2 m air temperature (Ta), precipitation (P),
global radiation (Sin
/media/ces/Machguth_Horst_CES_2010.pdf
the Peak-over-Threshold method can be found in Massad et al. (2020),
Chapters 3 and 5.2, and were derived from Coles (2001).
Results are shown in Table 6 for two catchments: Hálslón and Þingvallavatn. Return levels for
the other watersheds are in Appendix III (Tables III.1 – 11). The return values are larger for
Þingvallavatn than Hálslón. Þingvallavatn catchment extends northward over
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2022/VI_2022_006_extreme.pdf
Persistent organic pollutants in precipitation and air have been monitored at Stórhöfði since 1995. Heavy metals in precipitation have been monitored at Stórhöfði since 2001 and in aerosol since 1995. The results are processed at the Icelandic Meteorological Office and sent to a European data base at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, NILU.
Stórhöfði - an internationally acknowledged
/pollution-and-radiation/pollution/
a prerequisite and an element
of good governance and the sustainable
management of natural resources” (Enserink et al.
2007, similar to Pahl-Wostl et al. 2008).
The issue of public participation is becoming more
important not only in natural resources management
(Syme and Sadler 1994, Chess and Purcell 1999,
Webler and Tuler 1999, Beierle and Konisky 2000,
Bryner 2001, Webler and Tuler 2001, Beierle
/media/loftslag/vonKorff_etal-2010.pdf
Introduction
There is almost global consensus among the scientific community that there exists a
causal relationship between human activities and climate change, with compelling
evidence that climatic changes result from the combination of natural variability
and human influences, in particular greenhouse gases emitted from the use of fossil
fuels and land-use changes (Houghton et al., 2001). Climate
/media/loftslag/Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006.pdf
is not addressed in the
CES/ENSEMBLES RCM-GCM matrix
• Observations
Simulated
• Rubel and Hantel (2001)
ECHAM5
Problems with global climate models
Details in precipitation are not captured: example winter (DJF)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
mm/month
Downscaling methods:
Improving global climate
scenarios
Global Regional
Regional climate models (RCMs)
head2right Increased resolution
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
not representative of present or future climate
conditions?
Winter mean T in Helsinki (1961-2008)
1961-
20081961-
1990
Temperature (°C)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
-12 4
Simplest case: change in mean climate,
with no change in the magnitude of variability
If variability changes as well, the two tails of the distribution
(e.g., warm and cold) will be affected differently.
IPCC (2001/media/ces/RaisanenJouni_CES_2010.pdf