26.8.2011
Social cost-benefit
analysis in the context
of regional adaptation
planning
Adriaan Perrels FMI
NONAM PhD Summerschool on
Adaptive management in relation to
climate change
GEUS/FIVA Copenhagen 21-26.8.2011
26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 2
Presentation structure
• Context of climate change, adaptation and
infrastructure
• Cost-benefit analysis in brief
• The basics and metrics
/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf
Drought Area Index (RDAI)
• daily series,
• drought affected proportion of the area within one region,
total area = sum of catchment areas in the region,
barb2rightRDAI: 0 – 1.
CES conference, Oslo, Norway, 31 May - 2 June 2010
Regional drought definition
• RDAI > 0.7
Anne K. Fleig et al. “Regional hydrological droughts and weather types in north-western Europe “
University of Oslo Droughts
/media/ces/AnneFleig_May2010_CES.pdf
behavior towards
a public good based on individual preferences, and provides insights into the type of indi-
viduals who best serve the social interest and those to avoid in institutional settings. This
distinction helps us to understand why, with the same incentives, the provision of public
goods works better in some populations than in others. In addition, our use of a sequential
public good
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
Dashed lines encompass the V-shaped zone of tephra deposition. (c)
Oblique aerial view from west of the tephra plume at Grímsvötn on 2 November. Note the ashfall
from the plume. (Photo by M. J. Roberts.) (d) Weather radar image at 0400 UTC on 2 November.
The top portion shows its projection on an EW-vertical plane. The minimum detection height for
Grímsvötn is seen at 6 km, and the plume extends
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
Type: Subglacial volcano with caldera
Summit ice cover: Yes
Dominant type of activity: Basaltic explosive, phreatomagmatic
Magma type: Basalt dominant
Known precursors: No information
Expected precursors: Significant increase in seismic activity
Monitoring level: High
Current seismicity: Seismic swarms from 16 August 2014. See http://vedur.is for live
information
Eruption
/media/jar/Bardarbunga_kafli20140825.pdf
).
A successor. We need to find ways to
identify nonstationary probabilistic models
of relevant environmental variables and to
use those models to optimize water systems.
The challenge is daunting. Patterns of
change are complex; uncertainties are large;
and the knowledge base changes rapidly.
Under the rational planning framework
advanced by the Harvard Water Program
(21, 22), the assumption
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
flows ...................................... 21
4.1 Area 1 and 2: Talus slope below the summit of NW-Strandartindur ................... 22
4.2 Area 3: Upper part of Þófi ........................................................................ 22
4.3 Area 4: The edge of Þófi .......................................................................... 22
4.4 Area 5 and 6: Talus slope below the summit
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2016/VI_2016_006_rs.pdf
100
15 17 19 21 23 25
Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day)
P
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g39g72g79g87g68g3g70g75g68g81g74g72g3
g40g80g83g76g85g76g70g68g79g3g68g71g77g88g86g87g80g72g81g87
Percentage change in 200-year flood
Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of
sampled s urces
N = 115
GCM/RCM = 50
EA/DC = 38
HBV = 27
• Differences in GCM/RCM
tend to be more significant
in inland
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf