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• 31. Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2

  extreem events C6; qual nat. systems C7; policies C8; price of resources C9; other sectors C10; industry C11; inrastructure Crimea - Ukraine Manaus - Brazil From FCM to model input FCM – strong points • Easy to develop and apply. The approach is highly intuitive, it can quickly be explained and applied to any new situation. • High level of integration. A FCM can contain any type of information /media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf

• 32. Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011

  ]. There is ample experience with backcasting, and consequently much has been said about the underlying principles (e.g. [20]), the methodological 838 K. Kok et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 835–851 Author's personal copy framework (e.g. [8,30–32]), and practical applications (e.g. [33–35]). Also the combination between backcasting and other types of scenarios has been /media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf

• 33. Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change

  can be found in Huntjens et al. (2007), Chapter 4 of NeWater Deliverable 1.7.9a (http://www.newater.info). Climate change adaptation in European river basins 265 123 interactions, by private and public actors, to achieve adaptation and to enhance the capacity of processes, institutional arrangements and actors to adapt to future environmental changes (Huitema et al. 2009). Adaptive governance /media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf

• 34. Kok_JGEC658_2009

  and that paving major roads will lead to deforestation. C3: Conservation units. A large percentage of the Amazon (close to 33%) is classified as some kind of protected area. This includes indigenous reserves, federal parks and national parks. Only about 5% is strictly protected, although it is argued that ‘paper parks’ can also be effective. C4: Forest accessibility. The amount of forest /media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf

• 35. Keskitalo_et_al-MLG_and_adaptation_FINAL

  areas: to the regional arm of the state (the county administrative boards) to coordinate adaptation; to specific governmental bodies and agencies to develop a common elevation data basis; and for the assessment of flood risk and erosion defense measures around Lake Vänern. Risks considered by the Bill include the flooding of central Gothenburg, the second largest city of Sweden (a risk /media/loftslag/Keskitalo_et_al-MLG_and_adaptation_FINAL.pdf

• 36. Public-Choice-2012---McGuiness-and-Walker---Foundations-of-the-Ostrom-workshop---institutional-analysis,-polycentricity,-and-self-governance-of-the-commons

  The well-being of any human community is critically dependent on continued access to natural and man-made resources. Decades before sustainability became a popular slogan, the Ostroms began to investigate the conditions under which natural resources can be man- aged in a sustainable manner. The origins of the Workshop approach can be traced back at least as far as “State Administration of Natural /media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---McGuiness-and-Walker---Foundations-of-the-Ostrom-workshop---institutional-analysis,-polycentricity,-and-self-governance-of-the-commons.pdf

• 37. Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011

  Korona et al., 2009) and 2010 (airborne LiDAR in autumn). The Cryosphere, 5, 961–975, 2011 www.the-cryosphere.net/5/961/2011/ G. Aðalgeirsdóttir et al.: 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier 963 Fig. 2. (A) Measured bedrock topography of Hoffellsjökull (2001). Blue colours indicate elevation below sea level. (B–E) Surface to- pography at different times, showing retreat /media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf

• 38. CES_D2.4_task1

  is projected to approach 90%. The impact of anthropogenic climate change on precipitation is still estimated to be very small at present. In the middle of this century, typically about 60% of all months are projected to have above-median precipitation in northern Europe, although with a substantial variation with the time of the year. An on-line appendix of this report provides detailed tables /media/ces/CES_D2.4_task1.pdf

• 39. VI_2020_008

  by the Peak-over-Threshold with MLE applied on daily and 24-hour accumulated precipitation from the ICRA. ............................... 58 8 Glossary 1M5 – Daily or 24-hour precipitation return level with a 5-year return period AMS – Annual Maxima Series CC – Closeness Coefficient CDO – Climate Data Operator EVA – Extreme Value Analysis GP – Generalized Pareto ICRA – Icelandic /media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf

• 40. Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games

  individuals act like homo-œconomicus agents (see for example Andreoni 1988; Berg et al. 1995; Camerer 2003; Forsythe et al. 1994; Isaac et al. 1984). Recent developments in public-choice theory have taken a behavioral approach to broaden the analysis of collective action. The introduction of social preferences, such as altruism, inequity aversion or trust, may mean that optimal collective choices /media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf