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  • 31. Climate and Modeling Scenarios

    & Ruosteenoja, K. (2009). Comparing regional risks in producing turnip rape and oilseed rape - Impacts of climate change and breeding. Acta agriculturae Scandinavica 59B:2, 129-138. doi:10.1080/09064710802022895 (http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/tandf/sagb/2009/00000059/00000002/art00004). Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Clausen, N.E., Drews, M., MacKellar, N. & Kjellström, E. (2010). Analyses /ces/publications/nr/1680
  • 32. Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2

    extreem events C6; qual nat. systems C7; policies C8; price of resources C9; other sectors C10; industry C11; inrastructure Crimea - Ukraine Manaus - Brazil From FCM to model input FCM – strong points • Easy to develop and apply. The approach is highly intuitive, it can quickly be explained and applied to any new situation. • High level of integration. A FCM can contain any type of information /media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
  • 33. Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011

    ]. There is ample experience with backcasting, and consequently much has been said about the underlying principles (e.g. [20]), the methodological 838 K. Kok et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 835851 Author's personal copy framework (e.g. [8,30–32]), and practical applications (e.g. [33–35]). Also the combination between backcasting and other types of scenarios has been /media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf
  • 34. CES_D2_2_poster_3x3

    (median) changes from the model-based hindcast. Bottom: the location of the observed change within the hindcast probability distribution. Blue (red) shading indicates areas where the observed change was above the 95th percentile (below the 5th percentile) of the hindcast distribution. These maps show that there was no detailed agreement between the best-estimate precipitation change hindcast /media/ces/CES_D2_2_poster_3x3.pdf
  • 35. VI_2020_005

    and CNES, n.d.; National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff, 2016; Quante and Colijn, 2016). Now, additional altimeters at different orbits perform slightly less accurate measurements up to 82 N and S (Rhein et al., 2013). These records are used to estimate sea surface changes and calculate global mean sea level, a temporal average sea level averaged over the oceans (Church, Clark, et al., 2013 /media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_005.pdf
  • 36. Kok_JGEC658_2009

    and that paving major roads will lead to deforestation. C3: Conservation units. A large percentage of the Amazon (close to 33%) is classified as some kind of protected area. This includes indigenous reserves, federal parks and national parks. Only about 5% is strictly protected, although it is argued that ‘paper parks’ can also be effective. C4: Forest accessibility. The amount of forest /media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
  • 37. Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011

    Korona et al., 2009) and 2010 (airborne LiDAR in autumn). The Cryosphere, 5, 961975, 2011 www.the-cryosphere.net/5/961/2011/ G. Aðalgeirsdóttir et al.: 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier 963 Fig. 2. (A) Measured bedrock topography of Hoffellsjökull (2001). Blue colours indicate elevation below sea level. (B–E) Surface to- pography at different times, showing retreat /media/ces/Adalgeirsdottir-etal-tc-5-961-2011.pdf
  • 38. Isskyrsla_20100407

    N66°44.92' W025°08.94' 79. N66°45.01' W025°08.50' 80. N66°46.32' W025°10.27' 81. N66°46.73' W025°07.19' 82. N66°46.01' W025°04.86' 83. N66°46.22' W025°04.33' 84. N66°47.12' W025°06.45' 85. N66°47.26' W025°04.36' 86. N66°48.44' W025°03.60' 87. N66°49.10' W025°04.45' 88. N66°51.68' W025°03.27' 89. N66°53.36' W024°59.25' 90. N66°55.39' W024°58.89' 91. N66°55.82' W024°58.13' 92. N66°56.15' W025°01.15 /media/hafis/skyrslur_lhg/Isskyrsla_20100407.pdf
  • 39. CES_D2.4_VMGO

    the territories of European Russia (ER) and Europe (EU) an ensemble of 9 CMIP3 [1] comprehensive global (coupled atmosphere-ocean) climate models is used in this assessment (Table 1); so called A2 scenario is considered. Both A2 and A1B scenarios are similar in terms of resulting global mean warming up to the mid-21st century IPCC [2]. The projected changes in ER and EU in many cases continue /media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
  • 40. Public-Choice-2012---McGuiness-and-Walker---Foundations-of-the-Ostrom-workshop---institutional-analysis,-polycentricity,-and-self-governance-of-the-commons

    The well-being of any human community is critically dependent on continued access to natural and man-made resources. Decades before sustainability became a popular slogan, the Ostroms began to investigate the conditions under which natural resources can be man- aged in a sustainable manner. The origins of the Workshop approach can be traced back at least as far as “State Administration of Natural /media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---McGuiness-and-Walker---Foundations-of-the-Ostrom-workshop---institutional-analysis,-polycentricity,-and-self-governance-of-the-commons.pdf

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