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Results:

• 31. Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92

  ). Undercatchment of solid precipitation is dealt with by looking only at days when precipitation is presumably liquid (summer or temperature criteria) or by considering the oc- currence and non-occurrence of precipitation. COMPARISON WITH OBSERVED PRECIPITATION Figure 1 shows the relative error of the simulations, (mm5-obs) / obs, for the summer months June, July and August (JJA). It can be seen /media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf

• 32. VI_2015_007

  that site, and applied at that site, treated as ungauged. Estimated index flood and flood quantiles were then compared to the reference index flood and flood quantiles calculated with AMF observations available at the target site (see Sections 4.3.1 and 4.3.2). The ability to predict the index flood at ungauged sites was evaluated by calculating the relative root mean squared error (RMSEµ) between /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf

• 33. VI_2014_005

  for the diurnal cycle in July. For SURFEX temperatures, day- and night-time biases are similar. However, for projected temperatures, the summertime diurnal cycle is too weak, with a positive bias at night, and a negative bias during the day. In January, the diurnal temperature cycle is weak, and differ- ences in simulated day- and night-time temperatures are small. Overall, while the absolute mean error in 2 /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_005.pdf

• 34. glacier_mass_balance_poster

  the autumn 1979 ii. Tindfjallajökull ice cap (Ti) from the autumn 1980 iii. Eyjafjallajökull ice cap (E) from the autumn 1984 - spatial resolution 40x40 m - accuracy <10 m in elevation Imprinted profiles: a) Airborne radar altimetry, observed seasonally from 2004 to 2007 - relative error within 1 m b) ICESat elevation data (e.g. Zwally and others, 2002), observed seasonally from 2004 to 2007 /media/ces/glacier_mass_balance_poster.pdf

• 35. Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation

  Lead21-30 Lead31+ Warning Lead Time I n d e x V a l u e Injuries False Alarms and the Cry Wolf Effect • The value of a weather forecast or warning in an expected value framework depends on the reliability of the information signal. • Two error probabilities are relevant, the probability a tornado occurs unwarned, and the probability a warning is issued when no tornado occurs. • The second /media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf

• 36. Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1

  st c o ve r (% ) 8 x 8 y = -17.1Ln(x) + 67 R2 = 0.82 F o re st c o ve r (% ) 4 4 y = -4.2x + 65 R2 = 0.94 30 40 50 6 0 2 4 6 l ti it F o re st c o ve r (% ) 2 2 Hypothetical aggregation error by upscaling non-linear relationships Observed from hypothetical exampleTheo etical under inning (Rastetter, 1992) Spatial scale – Dominant cells Conclusions - scale • “Scale” has been on the (land use /media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf

• 37. VI_2022_006_extreme

  Þingvallavatn 2 years 5 years 10 years 25 years 50 years 100 years 3 hours 12 15 18 19 21 23 6 hours 26 31 35 38 41 44 12 hours 48 56 62 67 73 77 24 hours 78 90 99 107 117 124 48 hours 113 128 138 148 159 168 26 Figure 12 – 1M5 map for catchment Hálslón based on the complete ICRA dataset. Figure 13 – 1M5 map for catchment Þingvallavatn based on the complete ICRA dataset. 27 5.2 /media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2022/VI_2022_006_extreme.pdf

• 38. VI_2014_001

  - lating the coefficient of determination (R2). Then, the ability of each model to predict the index flood, bµi(D), at ungauged sites was evaluated by calculating the root mean squared error (RMSE) between reference and estimated index floods. The reference index flood was derived from real observations at gauged sites and from simulated series, not used to develop the regression equa- tions. Reference /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf

• 39. VI_2015_009

  quantiles (Qi(D;T )) at that site. Estimated index flood (bµi(D)) and flood quantiles ( bQi(D;T ) = bµi(D)qR(D;T )) were then compared to the reference index flood and flood quantiles, calculated with AMF observations available at the target site. The ability to predict the index flood at ungauged sites was evaluated by calculating the follow- ing statistics: Relative root mean squared error (RMSEµ /media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf

• 40. GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen

  ) and summer balance (bs), 1949–2006In general, modelled winter and summer balance ver 1949–2006 correlated well with observed val- ues (Table 3). Correlation (r) for winter balance was 0.84 and the resulting root mean square error(rmse) was 0.25 m w.e. for the reference run (bw- m1). Separating the period in two to check the pos-sible effect on relocation of the air temperature sta-tion from /media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf