Change 19 (2009) 122–133
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 14 November 2007
Received in revised form 21 August 2008
Accepted 25 August 2008
Keywords:
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Scenario
Participation
Resilience
Brazil
A B S T R A C T
The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and
quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
Suomalainen, M., Vehviläinen, B. and Veijalainen, N. (2007). Climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the Nordic region. 2071-2100. In: Proceedings of the 16th International Northern research Basins Symposium and Workshops, Petrozavodsk, Russia, 27 Aug.- 2 Sept. 2007, pp 19-28.
Bergström, S & Andréasson, J., (2009). A Nordic perspective on climate change and dam safety. In: Climate Sense
/ces/publications/nr/1938
)
Best case (1.5 C increase; 2%
increase in prec)
BAU A B
Change +30 % C D
Scenario
combination
Impact
Adaptation measures
North South North South
A *
CC: Possible increase in the
amount of snow more
snow clearing increase in
operational costs
S-E: increase in traffic
volume increased wear of
roads increase in
maintenance cost.
**
CC: Possibly less snow,
more rain
/media/loftslag/Group3-The-future-of-the-Finnish-national-road-network.pdf
W
W
W
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W
W
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D
DD
DD DD CB
CA
CB
CA
CA
CB
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CB
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CA
CBCB
CB
CA
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CBCBCB
CB
CB
CA
CA
CACA
CA
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CACACB
CA
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CA CA
CB
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CA CA
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CACA
CA
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CA
CA
CA
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CB
CA
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CBCA
CA
CACA CA
CA
CA CA
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CA CB CA
CA
CA
CBCB
CB
C
CA
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CA
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CACA
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B
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CACB
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CBCA
C B/media/vatnafar/maelar/vhmkerfi_mars_2012.pdf
landslides were found in 6 exploratory pits within the settlement. The age
of the landslides, hereafter denoted by A, B and C, was estimated with 14C dating and the use
of dated tephra layers in the area, see table 1. Map 8 shows the location of the pits that are all
situated within the settlement and Table 2 shows the thickness of each layer in the pits. The
source areas of the landslides were
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2016/VI_2016_006_rs.pdf
to theoretical framework. I do also want to thank him for an
enjoyable time during this work, both in the office and in the field.
This work was carried out as a part of the Skaftá cauldrons research project which
was funded and supported by the Icelandic Centre For Research (RANNÍS), Kvískerja-
sjóður, the NASA Astrobiology Institute, Landsvirkjun (the National Power Com-
pany), the National Energy
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_006_tt.pdf
of information and evi-
dence for decisions aimed at preventing “anthropogenic interference with the cli-
mate system” (as per Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, UNFCCC), but that those decisions also involve value judgements
which will be defined by socio-political processes, influenced by development, eq-
uity and sustainability considerations, alongside
/media/loftslag/Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006.pdf
in asphalt, road maintenace
Change: 30% more than BAU
Socio-economic scenario
Climate scenario
Worst case (4.4 C increase;
17 % increase in prec)
Best case (1.5 C increase; 2% increase in
prec)
BAU A B
Change +30 % C D
Spatial analogues:
- regions which today have a similar climate to the expected future one the study region (IPCC TAR,
2001)
- limited by possible lack
/media/loftslag/Group3-Road-scenarios.pdf