on the
Shifts of climatic
zones from
cooler or wetter
to warmer or
drier
(a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B
observational data set
(0.25º grid) from Haylock
et al. (2008)
(b-d) Based on CMIP3
GCM runs for A1B
& the delta-change
method
(c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B
Jylhä et al. (2010)
Uncertainties in climate change schematically
Observed
climate
Future
climate Natural
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
Hensch, B. Lund, Th. Árnadóttir, B. Brandsdóttir12:00
– 12:10 Closing remarks Kristín
S. Vogfjörð, Kristín Jónsdóttir, Martin Hensch12:10 – 13:45 Lunch
break 13:45 – 19:00 Fieldtrip to Reykjanes peninsula 13:45
is the departure time outside Grand Hotel Reykjavík!
We
need to start the trip on time to avoid ending
/norsem/norsem2016/program/thursday
Change 19 (2009) 122–133
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 14 November 2007
Received in revised form 21 August 2008
Accepted 25 August 2008
Keywords:
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Scenario
Participation
Resilience
Brazil
A B S T R A C T
The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and
quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
Refsgaard a,*, Jeroen P. v
Peter A. Vanroll
a Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenlan
b Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Utrecht University, Utrecht
c
Environmental Modelling & Softwar
equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ45 38 142 776; fax: þ45 38 142 050.
E-mail address: jcr@geus.dk (J.C. Refsgaard).
1364-8152
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
= b·Mwi
CMT
+ c , i = 1,…5,
with b = 1 and the parameter c estimated by least squares to be -4.88. Having determined c, the
magnitudes of all earthquakes in the data set are recalculated according to:
Mw(v)i := Ci + 4.88
With a determined to be -1.63 in the first step, the resulting log-linear attenuation relationship
becomes:
88.4)(log63.1)(log 1010 −+⋅−= MrPGV , (A)
Equation
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
the principalmethods have not changed much over the years, theamount of field work has varied. In the first 15 yearsthe monitoring programme at Storbreen was com-prehensive, often three or more snow density pits
were dug, snow depth was measured at about 600points and ablation was measured on 30 stakes
evenly distri uted on the glacier (Liestøl 1967).Based on experience of the snow pattern, the ob-
servations
/media/ces/GA_2009_91A_4_Andreassen.pdf
which are significantly lower com-
pared with similar beginning and end years. Consequently, for the 2004–50 period, the average
RCM warming rates of 0.29 K per decade over the ocean, and 0.35 K per decade over the land are
somewhat larger than for the reduced IPCC ensemble mean.
Additionally, the tabulated values of SAT differences between the 1961–90 control period and
either the 2021–50
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
level, surveys commissioned by the European Com-
munity/the European Union provide an indication of trends in concern about cli-
mate change. Since 1992, such surveys have been undertaken among representative
samples of citizens in its Member States, and specifically on topics related to the
environment (Special Eurobarometers (EB) in 1992, 1995, 2002; and a Flash EB
in 2002). These have included
/media/loftslag/Lorenzoni_Pidgeon_2006.pdf
at the operational/local level.
A calibrated approach (standardized questionnaires and
interviews, expert judgment, and reinterpretation of out-
comes by means of relevant literature) was used to com-
pare the state of affairs in water management in the
selected case-studies.
Adaptive and integrated water management
Given the expected increase of climate-related extreme
events, water governance capabilities
/media/loftslag/Huntjens_etal-2010-Climate-change-adaptation-Reg_Env_Change.pdf