E
l
b
e
i
n
D
r
e
s
d
e
n
,
A
p
r
i
l
2
0
0
7
CES conference, Oslo, Norway, 31 May - 2 June 2010
Typical features
• develop slowly,
• become severe when they cover a large region and persist for an
extended period.
E
l
b
e
i
n
D
r
e
s
d
e
n
,
A
p
r
i
l
2
0
0
7
(
s
p
i
e
g
e
l
.
d
e
)
Anne K. Fleig et al. “Regional hydrological droughts and weather types in north
/media/ces/AnneFleig_May2010_CES.pdf
Dashed lines encompass the V-shaped zone of tephra deposition. (c)
Oblique aerial view from west of the tephra plume at Grímsvötn on 2 November. Note the ashfall
from the plume. (Photo by M. J. Roberts.) (d) Weather radar image at 0400 UTC on 2 November.
The top portion shows its projection on an EW-vertical plane. The minimum detection height for
Grímsvötn is seen at 6 km, and the plume extends
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
a systematic com-
parison of results to observed precipitation has been carried out. Un-
dercatchment of solid precipitation is dealt with by looking only at
days when precipitation is presumably liquid or by considering the
occurrence and non-occurrence of precipitation. Away from non-
resolved orography, the long term means (months, years) of observed
and simulated precipitation are often
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_92.pdf
!
!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des
m
m
/
m
å
n
e
d
55550 Hafslo
60
80
100
120
140
jan feb ar apr ai j j l t
m
m
/
m
å
n
e
d
55550 Hafslo 54130 Lærdal
Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
). This can be helpful with respect to
finding a common structure in presenting as well in session reporting (for which angles
mentioned in the opening session statements of the Workshop participants can provide
checkpoints).”
Session rapporteur allocation
M
o
n
d
a
y
2
9
.
8
Y
u
a
n
g
Z
h
e
n
g
A
t
h
a
n
a
s
i
o
s
V
o
t
s
i
s
E
i
v
i
n
d
J
u
n
k
e
r
M
i
c
h
a
e
l
L
a
i
h
o
H
e
c
to
r
/media/loftslag/Guidelines2-for-rapporteurs.pdf
and distribution network are all identified
a section at a time. In some cases, however, it might
be more valuable to focus only on a certain part of
functional model.
Fig.1. Functional Model.
The results of the risk analysis are represented
visually in a fourfold table. (Fig.2) The main idea of the
table is to provide a readily interpretable overview of
h hi hli h d i k d i i i l i
Having already been
/media/ces/ces_risk_flyer.pdf
BIOMATH, Ghent University, Gent, Belgium
d Water Quality Modelling modelEAU, University Laval, Quebec, Canada
Received 20 December 2005; received in revised form 5 February 2007; accepted 7 February 2007
Available online 27 April 2007
Abstract
A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader
water
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
which are significantly lower com-
pared with similar beginning and end years. Consequently, for the 2004–50 period, the average
RCM warming rates of 0.29 K per decade over the ocean, and 0.35 K per decade over the land are
somewhat larger than for the reduced IPCC ensemble mean.
Additionally, the tabulated values of SAT differences between the 1961–90 control period and
either the 2021–50
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
inty in decision making linking pluriform uncertainty combining certified and tacit knowledge
Tommy Chan Mich el Laiho Patrick Driscoll Kare Lundgren Hector Guin a Barrientos
Eivind Junker Jussi Ylhäisi Athanasios Votsis
Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola Yuang Zheng Väi ö Nurmi Jiao Xi nj Wejs
a
p
p
l
i
c
a
n
t
n
o
.
a
b
s
t
r
a
c
t
n
o
.
n
a
m
e
c
o
u
n
t
r
y
d
i
s
c
i
p
l
i
n
e
(
M
S
c
.
)
1
3
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53, 100-111.
Kriauciuniené, J., Meilutyté-Barauskiené, D., Rimkus, E., Kays, J., Vincevicius, A. (2008). Climate change impact on hydrological processes in Lithuanian Nemunas river basin. Baltica, Vol. 21 (1-2), pp. 1-61. Vilnius. ISSN 3067-3064.
Lawrence, D., Haddeland, I. (2010). Uncertainty in hydrological modelling of climate change impacts in four Norwegian
/ces/publications/nr/1938