2050s 2080s
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
r
a
t
i
n
g
(
%
)
10%
50%
90%
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
r
a
t
i
n
g
(
%
)
C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
r
a
t
i
n
g
(
%
)
Each bar
shows
range over
whole UK
spatial
area
June 2010 13
Is the impact similar over the
whole UK?
• Changes in the summer minimum rating, i.e.
worst-case conditions – max temperature:
Rating at baseline period 1961
/media/ces/Cradden_Lucy_CES_2010.pdf
Results
W
i
n
t
e
r
t
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
Max snow depth
Trend slope
Number of snow days
Period II
P
e
r
i
o
d
I
I
I
Max snow depth Number of snow days
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Correlation analysis (1961-08)
138 mutual stations
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Correlation with
winter
temperature
Correlation with
winter
precipitation
In warmer regions both snow
parameters
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
maximum flow. For time periods, see Table 1.
10
3 Index flood method
3.1 General principle
The method has already been described in detail in Crochet (2012a,b) and Crochet & Þórarins-
dóttir (2014) and so is only summarised here. The index flood method (IFM), proposed by
Dalrymple (1960) can be used to estimate the T -year flood quantile at ungauged locations or
at gauged sites with short records
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
by season (%) between
1991-2007 and 1961-1990 in the Baltic countries
1
9
0
0
1
9
2
0
1
9
4
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
8
0
2
0
0
0
-
1
5
-
1
0
-
5
0
5
1
0
1
5
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
a
n
o
m
a
l
y
(
%
)
R
e
g
i
o
n
1
R
e
g
i
o
n
2
R
e
g
i
o
n
3
R
e
g
i
o
n
4
F
un
c
t
ion
P
lo
t
5
1
9
0
0
1
9
2
0
1
9
4
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
8
0
2
0
0
0
-
1
.
5
-
1
-
0
.
5
0
0
.
5
1
1
.
5
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
a
n
o
m
/media/ces/ces_SA_group_flyer_new.pdf
including, for example, ensuring dam safety. The
goal of the new Climate and Energy Systems project is to look at climate impacts closer in time and assess the
a n o ect ves o t e ro ect
An evaluation of risk under increased uncertainty in
order to improve decision making in a changing
climate was carried out through the following steps:
development of the Nordic electricity system for the next
/media/ces/ces_risk_flyer.pdf
ensemble mean SAT values during the
1961–90 control period.
The exact values of linear SAT trends, determined by least-squares regression, are given in Table 4.
Based on a standard t-test, all these trends are significantly different from zero on the 99.9%
confidence level. As seen before, based on the reduced IPCC ensemble mean, differences in linear
SAT trends over the ocean and the land are small
/media/ces/2010_005_.pdf
be ordered at the EU Bookshop and it can be accessed on the web both as PDF suitable for the screen (1.5 Mb) and in higher resolution suitable for printing (27.9 Mb).
Edited by T. Jóhannesson of the Icelandic Meteorological Office and by P. Gauer, P. Issler and K. Lied of the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute. Contributions by M. Barbolini, U. Domaas, T. Faug, P. Gauer, K. M. Hákonardóttir, C. B
/about-imo/news/nr/1631
ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
g
e
o
s
t
r
o
p
h
i
c
w
i
n
d
s
p
e
e
d
(
%
)
Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
G
CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf