Estimation of eruption site location
using volcanic lightning
Þórður Arason
Guðrún Nína Petersen
Halldór Björnsson
VÍ 2013-006
Report
Estimation of eruption site location using
volcanic lightning
V Í 201 3 - 006
ISS N 167 0 - 8 261
Report?
+354 522 60 00
ved u r@ ve d u r. is
Veð u rst of a Ísla n d s
Búst a ð a ve gur 7–9
150 Reykja vík
Þórður Arason, Icelandic Met
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_006.pdf
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/media/vedur/aerodrome_summaries_20140603.pdf
aversion should influence the first mover’s decision. The
98 Public Choice (2012) 151:91–119
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Public Choice (2012) 151:91–119 99
Table 1 The predicted effect of
intrinsic preferences on first and
second movers’ contributions
1st mover 2nd mover
Disadvantageous Negative None
inequity aversion
Advantageous None Positive
inequity
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
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/weather/stations/
in snow cover duration
between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years +1.7°C
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
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barb2right -37 days
Mean yearly maximum snowmelt rate
Timing difference
between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years
+1.7°CCatchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment
/media/ces/Crochet_Philippe_CES_2010.pdf
• MetNo-HIRLAM-HadCM3,
• SMHI-RCA3-BMC with the SRES A1B.
The climate model results were downscaled using
statistical downscaling method:
Sennikovs, J. and Bethers, U. 2009. Statistical downscaling
method of regional climate model results for hydrological
modeling. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns,
Australia 13-17 July 2009 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09
Observed, modeled
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
100
15 17 19 21 23 25
Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day)
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Percentage change in 200-year flood
Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of
sampled s urces
N = 115
GCM/RCM = 50
EA/DC = 38
HBV = 27
• Differences in GCM/RCM
tend to be more significant
in inland
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
............................................................................... 20
Räisänen, J.
Probability distributions of monthly-to-annual mean temperature and precipitation in a changing climate ......... 22
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg G. and Ullerstig A.
Nordic weather extremes as simulated by the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model: Model evaluation and
future projections
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
up to ~13 km height.
BY K. S. VOGFJÖRD, S. S. JAKOBSDÓTTIR,
G. B. GUDMUNDSSON, M. J. ROBERTS, K. ÁGÚSTSSON,
T. ARASON, H. GEIRSSON, S. KARLSDÓTTIR,
S. HJALTADÓTTIR, U. ÓLAFSDÓTTIR,
B. THORBJARNARDÓTTIR, T. SKAFTADÓTTIR,
E. STURKELL, E. B. JÓNASDÓTTIR, G. HAFSTEINSSON,
H. SVEINBJÖRNSSON, R. STEFÁNSSON, AND T. V. JÓNSSON
Research, 2005), which are complemented by
three continuous GPS stations
/media/jar/myndsafn/2005EO260001.pdf
of market organisation alternatives
26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 10
Cost-benefit analysis – the basics 3
Simple example: despite positive IRR still cash flow challenge years 1 - 8
CBA example - initial investment 100; interest and discount 5%;
operational cost +5%/y; benefits +10%/y; IRR = 7.4%
-20
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/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf