to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks.
Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario
methods.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
* Tel.: +31 317 482422; fax: +31 317 419000.
E-mail address: kasper.kok@wur.nl.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Global Environmental Change
journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate
/media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf
aversion should influence the first mover’s decision. The
98 Public Choice (2012) 151:91–119
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Public Choice (2012) 151:91–119 99
Table 1 The predicted effect of
intrinsic preferences on first and
second movers’ contributions
1st mover 2nd mover
Disadvantageous Negative None
inequity aversion
Advantageous None Positive
inequity
/media/loftslag/Public-Choice-2012---Teyssier---Inequity-and-risk-aversion-in-sequential-public-good-games.pdf
TíðaskarðFaxaflsjObs.ForecastMeteogramInfo.Obs. data
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/weather/stations/
in snow cover duration
between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years +1.7°C
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
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barb2right -40 %
Magnitude difference
100(Warmest - Coldest)/Coldest
barb2right -37 days
Mean yearly maximum snowmelt rate
Timing difference
between 25% warmest and 25% coldest years
+1.7°CCatchment elevation (m.a.s.l)
Catchment
/media/ces/Crochet_Philippe_CES_2010.pdf
• MetNo-HIRLAM-HadCM3,
• SMHI-RCA3-BMC with the SRES A1B.
The climate model results were downscaled using
statistical downscaling method:
Sennikovs, J. and Bethers, U. 2009. Statistical downscaling
method of regional climate model results for hydrological
modeling. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns,
Australia 13-17 July 2009 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09
Observed, modeled
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
100
15 17 19 21 23 25
Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day)
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g40g80g83g76g85g76g70g68g79g3g68g71g77g88g86g87g80g72g81g87
Percentage change in 200-year flood
Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of
sampled s urces
N = 115
GCM/RCM = 50
EA/DC = 38
HBV = 27
• Differences in GCM/RCM
tend to be more significant
in inland
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
the com-
plexity of the hydrological processes through modelling, but its application is usually limited to
the short-range. Although the results demonstrated a great potential for this method, its success-
ful application in real-time will strongly depend on the quality and availability of streamflow
observations, which can be poor or simply missing during periods of variable durations, e.g
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_006.pdf
............................................................................... 20
Räisänen, J.
Probability distributions of monthly-to-annual mean temperature and precipitation in a changing climate ......... 22
Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg G. and Ullerstig A.
Nordic weather extremes as simulated by the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model: Model evaluation and
future projections
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
of market organisation alternatives
26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 10
Cost-benefit analysis – the basics 3
Simple example: despite positive IRR still cash flow challenge years 1 - 8
CBA example - initial investment 100; interest and discount 5%;
operational cost +5%/y; benefits +10%/y; IRR = 7.4%
-20
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
years
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writing off
finance
/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf
for widespread adoption in the water sector. Environmental Policy and Governance. DOI:
10.1002/eet.590
Kaner S (2007) Facilitator’s Guide to Participatory Decision-Making. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco.
Cooke B, Kothari U (2007) Participation: the new tyranny? (4th edition) Zed Books: New York.
Daniell KA, White I, Ferrand N, Ribarova IS, Coad P, Rougier J-E, Hare MP, Jones NA, Popova A, Rollin D
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf