of the analogue method is introduced. In Section 3 hydrological and me-
teorological data used in the analysis are presented. Section 4 describes the different strategies
considered for implementing the method and Section 5 presents some results. Some concluding
remarks are made in Section 6.
2 The analogue method
Let X(t) be a state of a dynamical system at time t, known through the observation of k variables
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2013/VI_2013_008.pdf
Gíslason, Árni Snorrason, Jórunn Harðardóttir,
Svava Björk Þorláksdóttir, Árný E. Sveinbjörns-
dóttir & R. A. Neely (). Efnasamsetning,
rennsli og aurburður straumvatna á Austur-
landi X: Gagnagrunnur Jarðvísindastofnunar
og Veðurstofunnar. Raunvísindastofnun
Háskólans RH--, s.
Eydís Salóme Eiríksdóttir, Svava Björk
Þorláksdóttir, Jórunn Harðardóttir & Sigurður
Reynir Gíslason
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf
Clausen, N.-E., Pryor, S. C., Guo Larsén, X., Hyvönen, R., Venäläinen, A., Suvilampi, E., Kjellström, E., Barthelmie, R. (2009). Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009.
Engen-Skaugen,T & Førland, E.J. (2010). Future change in return values and extreme precipitation at selected catchments in Norway, met.no Report 20/2010 (draft).
Engen
/ces/publications/nr/1680
Pálsson F., Rögnvaldsson
Ó., Sigurðsson O., Snorrason Á., Sveinsson Ó. G. B., Thorsteinsson Th. 2007.
Effect of climate change on hydrology and hydro-resources in Iceland. Rep.
OS-2007/011, National Energy Authority, Reykjavík.
Liang, X.-Z., Li L. and Kunke K. E. 2004 Regional climate model simulation
of U.S. precipitation during 1982–2002. Part I: Annual cycle. J. Climate, 17,
3510–3529.
Pálsson, F
/media/ces/Paper-Olafur-Rognvaldsson_91.pdf
research
VIII. Resources: extensive vs limited
IX. Institutional conditions: open vs constrained
C Scenario content - complex vs simple:
X. Temporal nature: chain vs snapshot
XI. Variables: heterogeneous vs homogenous
XII. Dynamics: peripheral vs trend
XIII. Level of deviation: alternative vs conventional
XIV. Level of integration: high vs low
Scenarios - types
EXAMPLE 1 – EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS
/media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
on the quantity at hand (strengths and weaknesses in
Box 1. The error propagation equation
The error propagation equations for the most common
operators are (s is the standard deviation):
Addition and Subtraction: z ¼ x þ yþ/ or z ¼
x y/
sz ¼
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
s2x
þ
s2y
þ/
r
Multiplication by an exact number: z
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
- Instantaneous Index flood models for Region 2.......................... 44
Appendix IX - Comparison between reference and estimated instantaneous index
floods for Region 1........................................................................................ 45
Appendix X - Comparison between reference and estimated instantaneous index
floods for Region 2
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
is based on Moho reflections from the location marked by the X (Vogfjörd et
al., 2002).
11
Figure 2. Upper: Cumulative number of earthquakes in and near to Eyjafjallajökull.
Lower: Magnitude distribution (local moment magnitude scale, Mlw).
1.2 Seismic activity and deformation of the volcano
The number of detected earthquakes in Eyjafjallajökull has risen substantially since
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of Geophysical Research, 108(D3), 4124, doi:10.1029/2002JD002287.
IPCC (2001), Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the
third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. (eds. Houghton,
J. T. , Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.
A. Johnson), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
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