variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
(
1
/
º
C
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
L. Michaelis, S. Mori, T. Morita, W.Pepper,
H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Raihi, A. Roehrl, H.-H. Rogner, A. Sankovski, M.Schlesinger,
P.Shukla, S. Smith, R. Swart, S. van Rooijen, N. Victor, Z. Dadi, 2000: IPCC Special Report
on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY,
USA.
a)
b)
c)
Fig.1 Change of annual extreme temperature range
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
Perez P, Burn S (2010) Co-engineering participatory
water management processes: theory and insights from Australian and Bulgarian interventions. Ecology and Society 15(4):11
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss4/art11
Eriksson L, Garvill J, Nordlund AM (2006). Acceptability of travel demand management measures: The importance of problem awareness, personal norm,
freedom, and fairness
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
and the environment: the importance of
recognizing knowledge claims in transdisciplinary
arenas. Ecology and Society 16(1): 21. [online]
URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/
art21/.
Cash, D. W., W. Adger, F. Berkes, P. Garden, L.
Lebel, P. Olsson, L. Pritchard, and O. Young. 2006.
Scale and cross-scale dynamics: governance and
information in a multilevel world. Ecology and
Society 11(2): 8
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
tíðnidreifingarinnar (e. General Extreme Value distribution)
en sú seinni stika GP tíðnidreifingarinnar (e. General Pareto distribution). Einnig finnast fleiri
aðferðir til að aðlaga útgildadreifingu að gögnunum, tvær sem eru skoðaðar í þessari skýrslu
eru hámarkssennileikamat (e. Maximum Likelihood Estimate) og L-moments aðferðin. Eftir
næmnisathuganir, sem beitt er á bæði úrkomumælingar og útreikninga er
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
: to use or not to use?
*O'Neill, R. V., and A. W. King. 1998, Homage to St. Michael; or, why are there so
many books on scale?: Pages 3–15 in D. L. Peterson and V. T. Parker (editors).
Ecological scale: theory and applications. Columbia University Press, New York.
• Robert O’Neill questions the unifying capabilities*
• Aspects of the land use system have different scale properties
• To use
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
...................................... 12
Kriauciuniene, J., Reihan, A., Kolcova, T., Meilutyte-Barauskiene, D. and Lizuma, L.
Regional temperature, precipitation and runoff series in the Baltic countries ...................................................... 14
Fleig, A.K., Tallaksen, L.M., Hisdal, H. and Hannah, D.M.
Regional hydrological drought in north-western Europe and associated weather types
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
closer to Reykjavík, eight years before that. As elsewhere in Europe sulphur concentration is lower now than when measurements began. Average value of sulphur is about 0.5 mg/l in precipitation, about 0.1 μg/m3 in aerosol and about 0.07 μg/m3 in air.
Stórhöfði - a seashore background station
Stórhöfði is at the south end of island Heimaey which is the largest of the Westman islands
/pollution-and-radiation/pollution/