-
balance model
• Monthly temperature
• Monthly precipitation
Step 2: Extrapolation of model
parameters to all glaciers in
Iceland and Scandinavia
• Gridded climate variables
Step 3: Future projections until
2100 for each glacier:
- run mass-balance model
- Volume-area scaling
Volume-area-length
scaling
V = c Aγ
• Glacier inventory data
• downscaled GCM scenarios
A(t
V(t
ΔV
Methodology
Step
/media/ces/Hock_Regine_CES_2010rs.pdf
100
15 17 19 21 23 25
Mean annual peak runoff (mm/day)
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
b
e
l
o
w
g
i
v
e
n
v
a
l
u
e
g39g72g79g87g68g3g70g75g68g81g74g72g3
g40g80g83g76g85g76g70g68g79g3g68g71g77g88g86g87g80g72g81g87
Percentage change in 200-year flood
Uncertainty – Relative magnitude of
sampled s urces
N = 115
GCM/RCM = 50
EA/DC = 38
HBV = 27
• Differences in GCM/RCM
tend to be more significant
in inland
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
t
/
c
o
s
t
ratio
H
i
g
h
L
o
w
S
c
enar
i
o
1
S
c
ena
r
io
2
Present time 20302020
Socio
E
c
onomic
D
e
v
elopme
n
t
Figure 1. Scenario building for AWM in Horsens Fjord
To estimate of the adaptation strategy (Table 2) we will use back-casting approach. The assessments
of the productivity of this approach are based on main big strategies which need to have an attention.
One of them
/media/loftslag/Group-1_Scenarios-for-AWM.pdf
Refsgaard a,*, Jeroen P. v
Peter A. Vanroll
a Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenlan
b Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation
Utrecht University, Utrecht
c
Environmental Modelling & Softwar
equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ45 38 142 776; fax: þ45 38 142 050.
E-mail address: jcr@geus.dk (J.C. Refsgaard).
1364-8152
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
&
4
Y
u
a
n
g
Z
h
e
n
g
D
e
n
m
a
r
k
F
o
r
e
s
t
r
y
&
L
a
n
d
s
c
a
p
e
2
1
0
A
t
h
a
n
a
s
i
o
s
V
o
t
s
i
s
F
i
n
l
a
n
d
U
r
b
a
n
&
r
e
g
i
o
n
a
l
p
l
a
n
n
i
n
g
3
3
2
E
i
v
i
n
d
J
u
n
k
e
r
N
o
r
w
a
y
L
a
w
4
3
3
M
i
c
h
a
e
l
L
a
i
h
o
F
i
n
l
a
n
d
E
u
r
o
p
e
a
n
s
t
u
d
i
e
s
5
2
0
H
e
c
to
r
G
u
i
n
e
a
B
a
r
r
i
e
n
to
s
S
w
e
d
e
n
N
a
t
u
r
a
l
r
e
s
o
u
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
This is also the case with
cyclones in all three sectors. Cyclones in the eastern or western sector are also strongly affected
by the presence of central cyclones. In both sectors, cyclones tend to move east, unless there are
cyclones in the neighbouring sector, in which case pressure tendencies are reversed.
21
Figure 10. Composite mean temporal MSLP tendencies, for different MSLP modes. Com-
posite mean
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_005.pdf
Radic, V., Roald, L. A., Rosberg, J., Rogozova, S., Sigurðsson, O., Suomalainen, M., Thorsteinsson, T., Vehviläinen, B., & Veijalainen, N. (2007). Impacts of climate change on river runoff, glaciers and hydropower in the Nordic area. Joint final report from the CE Hydrological Models and Snow and Ice Groups. Reykjavík: Climate and Energy [Report (high resolution 15 MB)] [Report (low resolution 4 MB
/climatology/research/ce/publications/
: to use or not to use?
*O'Neill, R. V., and A. W. King. 1998, Homage to St. Michael; or, why are there so
many books on scale?: Pages 3–15 in D. L. Peterson and V. T. Parker (editors).
Ecological scale: theory and applications. Columbia University Press, New York.
• Robert O’Neill questions the unifying capabilities*
• Aspects of the land use system have different scale properties
• To use
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
-CALPUFF model is not using plume height estimates
as an input parameter. The model itself solves the equations describing the rising of the mixture
in the atmosphere and calculates the top-plume height by using some physical parameters as
the vertical mixture velocity (V) and the radius of the vent (R). Based on these two parameters,
V and R, we get an estimate of the mass flow rate and we
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_004.pdf