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• 71. Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1

  ) Log space (meters) Plot Farm days Village Watershed Field Agroecological Zone months year century decade m 10m 1000m 100km Analogy with land use systems (according to ecologists) Ecosystem = Land use system • Both consider interactions of ‘flora’ and ‘fauna’ • Both are complex systems • Ecosystems are ‘goal free’ • Humans drive land use change /media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf

• 72. Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science

  ). 24. M. E. Moss, Water Resour. Res. 15, 1797 (1979). 25. E. Ehrlich, B. Landy, Public Works, Public Wealth (Center for Strategic and International Studies Press, Washington, DC, 2005). 26. United Nations General Assembly, U.N. Millennium Declaration, Resolution 55/2 (2000). 10.1126/science.1151915 –40 –20 –10 –5 –2 40201052 Human influences. Dramatic changes in runoff volume from ice-free land /media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf

• 73. Climate and Modeling Scenarios

  A. (2010b). 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus, published online. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475. Ólafsson H, & Rögnvaldsson Ó. (2010). Regional and Seasonal Variability in Precipitation Scenarios For Iceland. Hydrology Research, in revision. Peltonen-Sainio, P., Hakala, K., Jauhiainen, L /ces/publications/nr/1680

• 74. Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2

  Environmental Change 19: 122-133 Kok, K., Van Delden, H. 2009. Combining two approaches of integrated scenario development to combat desertification in the Guadalentín watershed, Spain. Environment and Planning B 36: 49-66. Kok, K., Biggs, R., Zurek, M. 2007. Multi-scale scenario development methodologies. Experiences from Southern Africa and the Mediterranean. 2007. Ecology and Society. 12 (1): 8. [online /media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf

• 75. Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011

  l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 30 November 2009 Received in revised form 11 January 2011 Accepted 14 January 2011 Available online 17 February 2011 Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario /media/loftslag/Kok_et_al._TFSC_published_2011.pdf

• 76. VI_2020_005

  Institute, the Danish Coastal Authority and local authorities. Tide gauges are also operated in Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Data from tide gauges that are part of the PSMSL network is published online and for other stations, data is available from the responsible bodies but is not published online (Danish Ministry of Energy Utilities and Climate, 2017; PSMSL, n.d.). The Norwegian sea level /media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_005.pdf

• 77. Kok_JGEC658_2009

  /media/loftslag/Kok_JGEC658_2009.pdf