6
0
20
40
60
80
10
0
12
0
14
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q(
T)
(m
?s)
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
l Obs.
WaSiM vhm51
heM
95?bh ??Obs
95?bh ??W aSiM
95?bh heM
Annual max. Q : GEV Distributions for vhm51
Index flood model no. 6
l l l l
l
l l l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
−2 0 2 4 6
0
50
10
0
15
0
−ln(−ln(1−1/T))
Q(
T)
(m
?s)
1 2 5 10 20 50 100
T (years)
l Obs.
WaSiM vhm52
heM
95?bh Obs
95?bh
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2014/VI_2014_001.pdf
–8% likelihood that a vent will open on Heimaey. In other words, there is a 92–97% likelihood
that the next eruption within the volcanic system will not be on Heimaey. The most densely
populated parts of Heimaey in the north and around the harbor are the most vulnerable to
Moderate and Large lava flows originating on the island. Almost all infrastructure on the island
is vulnerable to lava
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_011_en.pdf