Occasional Paper no. 20, Center for
International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia.
Pelosi, C., M. Goulard, and G. Balent. 2010. The
spatial scale mismatch between ecological
processes and agricultural management: Do
difficulties come from underlying theoretical
frameworks? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
139(4):455-462.
Pierre, J., editor. 2000. Debating governance:
authority
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
of market organisation alternatives
26.8.2011Adriaan Perrels/IL 10
Cost-benefit analysis – the basics 3
Simple example: despite positive IRR still cash flow challenge years 1 - 8
CBA example - initial investment 100; interest and discount 5%;
operational cost +5%/y; benefits +10%/y; IRR = 7.4%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
years
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/media/loftslag/Perrels-CBA.pdf
deviation across the ensemble) and sign agreement (a percentage of models in the ensemble that
project the same sign of changes as the entire ensemble does).
Analysis
In Fig.1a shown are simulated changes in the annual extreme temperature range calculated
as difference between 20 yr mean absolute annual maxima and minima temperatures in baseline
and future scenario periods. The range
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations
or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%;
extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%; more likely than not > 50%; about as likely as not 33% to 66%; unlikely <33%; very
unlikely <10%; extremely unlikely <5
/media/loftslag/IPPC-2007-ar4_syr.pdf
fatalities occurred in
mobile homes,
although only 7.6% of
U.S. housing units in
2000.
• A one standard
deviation in the
proportion of mobile
homes in housing stock
(8.3 percentage
points) increases
fatalities by 36% and
injuries by 18%.
The Mobile Home Problem
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/media/loftslag/Tornado_Impacts_-_FMI_Presentation.pdf
water infra-
structure projects begun now are large
enough to push hydroclimate beyond the
range of historical behaviors (19). Some
regions have little infrastructure to buffer the
impacts of change.
Stationarity cannot be revived. Even with
aggressive mitigation, continued warming is
very likely, given the residence time of
atmospheric CO2 and the thermal inertia of
the Earth system (4, 20/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
(). The circulation of Icelandic waters-a
modelling study. Ocean Science , –.
Nygaard, B. E. K., Hálfdán Ágústsson & K.
Somfalvi-Toth (). Modeling wet snow ac-
cretion on power lines: improvements to previ-
ous methods using years of observations.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
(), –.
Philippe Crochet (). Sensitivity of Icelandic
river basins to recent
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/arsskyrslur/VED_AnnualReport-2013_screen.pdf