10:25 – 10:40
Icelandic Perspective and Hemispheric Overview (Chair: Edward Hanna)
Iceland: on the northern flank of the jet stream – T Jónsson
Circumpolar Vortex: Calculations and Correlations – P Jones
Response of the wintertime atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice
decline – G Magnusdottir
Group Discussion
10:40 – 11:00 Coffee Break
11:00 – 12:45
11:00 – 11:20/media/loftslag/Mid-Latitudes-Agenda1_nov2013EH.pdf
FORECASTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE FOR THREE EXAMPLE LOCATIONS
Probabilistic forecasts of annual mean temperature (top) and precipitation
(bottom) change at three locations. The whiskers show the 2.5%, 5%, 10%,
25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% and 97.5% quantiles of the probability distributions,
which are given separately for the four decades 2011-2020, 2021-2030, 2031-
2040 and 2041-2050. The two numbers
/media/ces/CES_D2_2_poster_3x3.pdf
20–30 years. It will address how the conditions for
production of renewable energy in the Nordic area might change due to global warming. It will focus on the
potential production and the future safety of the production systems as well as uncertainties.
Risk Assessment
The target user group for the tool, which is aimed to
be a first step in determining a strategy for identifying
potential risks
/media/ces/ces_risk_flyer.pdf
-OBS data set (ver. 1.1) (Haylock et al., 2008)
Data and method
Variables (daily)
max and min 2m temperature
max 10m gust wind (Brasseur 2001 )
accumulated precipitation
Extreme events
the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution
the 20-year return values of
annual max/min temperature and max gust wind
summer and winter maximum of precipitation
fitting the GEV: stationary model, L-moments
/media/ces/Nikulin_Grigory_CES_2010.pdf
A (A1, A2, A3). ........................................................................................... 89
Figure B.2. Rake distribution for mapped faults/clusters in box B, Fagradalsfjall-W. ...... 90
Figure B.3. Rake distribution for mapped faults/clusters in box C, Fagdaralsfjall-E. ....... 90
Figure B.4. Rake distribution for mapped faults/clusters in box D, Kleifarvatn
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2010/2010_003rs.pdf
Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå University, Umeå 90187, Sweden.
Tel. +46-90-786 50 80. Fax. +46-90-786 63 59
Abstract
A coherent application of a multi-level framework that takes interactions between levels and
how these are shaped by the political system into account is a prerequisite for understanding
the development and implementation of climate change adaptation policies
/media/loftslag/Keskitalo_et_al-MLG_and_adaptation_FINAL.pdf
emission scenario were even
greater, on average 5.1% units (Fig. 5), indicating that the GCMs are
a greater source of uncertainty than the choice of emission sce-
nario or RCM.
The flow regimes in different regions in Finland are demon-
strated with the five example hydrographs of the reference period
and of 2070–2099 (Fig. 8a–e, see Fig. 1c for locations). In northern
(Fig. 8a) and central (Fig. 8b/media/ces/Journal_of_Hydrology_Veijalainen_etal.pdf