fall and storm surge
Groundwater pollution by salt, nutrients, pesticides, and contaminants from landfills
Changing groundwater table which likely due to more abstraction
Droughts due to rising temperature
An adaptive management is needed to be applied to address those climate change effects. In this study, we
developed scenarios for 50 years time frame to support a 20 years adaptive
/media/loftslag/Group2-report.pdf
Journal of Environmental Management 88
Heid
, Øste
d
e
A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a
Human dependence on water leaves us vulnerable to
climate change, flood and drought hazards, and poverty
dynamic element of vulnerable groups and their relation-
ship to water resources, and to represent the decisions
/media/loftslag/Henriksen_Barlebo-2008-AWM_BBN-Journ_Env_Management.pdf
water infra-
structure projects begun now are large
enough to push hydroclimate beyond the
range of historical behaviors (19). Some
regions have little infrastructure to buffer the
impacts of change.
Stationarity cannot be revived. Even with
aggressive mitigation, continued warming is
very likely, given the residence time of
atmospheric CO2 and the thermal inertia of
the Earth system (4, 20/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
ea
th
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e
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rt
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf
in
development/policy
• Plausible futures
• No ‘desired’ future (no ‘doom or gloom’)
EURURALIS: Model chain
EU 25 arable and pasture land
160000
170000
180000
190000
200000
2000 2010 2020 2030
year
#
kh
a
A1
A2
B1
B2
EURURALIS: GTAP/IMAGE model
EURURALIS: CLUE model
Example 1c:
MedAction
Focus on participation and storylines
Example 3: MedAction
Land use change scenarios at various scales
To better
/media/loftslag/Kok_2-scenarios-lecture-2.pdf
Discrete
numerical
Categorical Narrative
Constant in space and time A1 A2 A3
4Varies in time, not in space B1 B2 B3
Varies in space, not in time C1 C2 C3
It is noticed that the matrix is in reality three-dimensional
(source, type, nature). Thus, the categories type and nature
are not mutually exclusive, and it may be argued that the ma-
trix should be modified in such a way that the two uncer
/media/loftslag/Refsgaard_etal-2007-Uncertainty-EMS.pdf
tg
ui
da
n
ce
fo
rt
ra
ns
bo
un
da
ry
w
at
er
s,
pr
ep
ar
ed
an
d
P. van der Keur et al.
(floo
dmanag
ement
)an
d
wat
er
qualit
y
ag
re
ed
u
po
n
in
co
m
m
o
n
u
n
de
rs
ta
nd
in
g,
creat
ed
th
e
bas
is
fo
rth
e
formul
atio
n
o
f
joi
nt
m
ea
su
re
s
(Fr
ijte
rs
an
d
Le
en
tv
aa
r
200
3)
Mo
del
s
(na
tural
,te
chnica
l
an
d
so
ci
al
sy
ste
m
s):
Uncert
aint
y
ha
s
to
be
incorp
orated
:
1:
Ep
ist
/media/loftslag/VanderKeur_etal-2008-Uncertainty_IWRM-WARM.pdf
an important part of the runoff from many areas. In total, approximately
20% of runoff in Iceland originates from groundwater (Hjartarson, 1994a).
In the above mentioned previous simulation of runoff map for Iceland for the period 1961–
1990, groundwater was omitted. Effects of groundwater flowing across watershed
boundaries were simulated by scaling the precipitation for each watershed. On watersheds
/media/ces/2010_017.pdf