variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
de
n
s
i
t
y
(
1
/
º
C
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
-473.
Gabriel, D., S. M. Sait, J. A. Hodgson, U. Schmutz,
W. E. Kunin, and T. G. Benton. 2010. Scale matters:
the impact of organic farming on biodiversity at
different spatial scales. Ecology Letters 13
(7):858-869.
Gibson, C. C., E. Ostrom, and T. K. Ahn. 2000. The
concept of scale and the human dimensions of global
change: a survey. Ecological Economics 32:217-239.
Hare, M., and P. Deadman
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
+⋅+= (6)
and the parameters g and e are given by: g = - b/a and e = -d/a.
The parameters of M and M2 in model (5) are thus directly linked with the parameters of form
(6) to better constrain the behavior in the near-field, and to provide PGA independence of
magnitude very close to the epicenter (see Appendix B). As in model B we use a second order
term M2 for the saturation of the PGA
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2009/VI_2009_012.pdf
Council on Water Resources, Carbondale, IL,
1998).
12. K. E. Schilling, E. Z. Stakhiv, in Global Change and Water
Resources Management (Water Resources Update No.
112, Universities Council on Water Resources,
Carbondale, IL, 1998).
13. J. R. Stedinger, D. Pei, T. A. Cohn, Water Resour. Res. 21,
665 (1985).
14. Z. W. Kundzewicz, L. Somlyódy, Water Resour. Manage.
11, 407 (1997).
15. P. C. D. Milly, K
/media/loftslag/Milly_etal-2008-Stationarity-dead-Science.pdf
that occur in Botnabrún or at the rim of Þófinn are debris slides. The size of the slides
varies depending on the source area.
C Mudslides or mudflows occur where there is an abundance of soils. They normally occur
in areas where the vegetation cover has been breached. Common occurrences in Seyðis-
fjörður are in the mountain Bjólfur and in the valley west of the settlement.
D Rockfalls are a common
/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2016/VI_2016_006_rs.pdf
Results
W
i
n
t
e
r
t
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
Max snow depth
Trend slope
Number of snow days
Period II
P
e
r
i
o
d
I
I
I
Max snow depth Number of snow days
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Correlation analysis (1961-08)
138 mutual stations
Introduction Data & Methods Results
Correlation with
winter
temperature
Correlation with
winter
precipitation
In warmer regions both snow
parameters
/media/ces/Dyrrdal_Anita_CES_2010.pdf
? – D Wheeler
Simulations of the impact of Arctic sea ice on the atmospheric circulation: the need for coupled
models – D Smith
Greenland Blocking and North Atlantic Oscillation changes – E Hanna / J Overland
Group Discussion
12:45 – 14:00 Lunch (after which we move into the matsalur - lunch hall)
14:00 – 15:40
14:00 – 14:20
14:20 – 14:40
14:40 – 15:00
15:00 – 15:20
15:20 – 15:40
/media/loftslag/Mid-Latitudes-Agenda1_nov2013EH.pdf
and corrected data
-5 0 5 10 15
1
.
0
1
.
5
2
.
0
2
.
5
3
.
0
3
.
5
Temperature,°C
P
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
,
m
m
/
d
a
y
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
JulAug
Sep
OctNov
Dec
Year
obs ALUKSNE
DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
mod DMI 1961-1990 ALUKSNE
JanFeb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
AugSep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Year
Jan
Feb
ar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Dec ear
After the
correction all 3
climate models
agree with
observed data
/media/ces/Kurpniece_Liga_CES_2010.pdf
750-1170
AAR of the warm year of 2004
- digitized using the October 2004 SPOT 5 HRS images
Ice cap
E: Eyjafjallajökull
To: Torfajökull
Ti: Tindfjallajökull
AAR (%)
20-25
<5
0
Method
References
Berthier E., Arnaud Y., Baratoux D., Vincent C. and Rémy F. 2004. Recent rapid thinning of the "Mer de Glace" glacier derived from satellite optical images.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17401, doi:10.1029
/media/ces/glacier_mass_balance_poster.pdf