ANN−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
delta w (%
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17C
h
a
n
g
e
i
n
g
e
o
s
t
r
o
p
h
i
c
w
i
n
d
s
p
e
e
d
(
%
)
Change in wind over the Baltic Sea in 70 years time at the time of CO2-doubling
Chen and Aschberger, 2006
17
CM
IP
G
CM
s
A need for regional ensemble simulations
head2right Changes are uncertain
head2right Size and sometimes even sign
/media/ces/Kjellstrom_Erik_CES_2010.pdf
M A M J J A l
ll l
l
l
l
l
l
l
lll
l
l
lll
0 100 200 300
60
0
80
0
100
0
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
)
vhm102
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
ll
l
l
l
l
l
l
0 100 200 300
30
40
50
60
70
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
)
vhm116
S O N D J F M A M J J A
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
0 100 200 300
20
0
30
0
40
0
50
0
Days since Sept. 1st
Q
(m
³/s
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_009.pdf
E
l
b
e
i
n
D
r
e
s
d
e
n
,
A
p
r
i
l
2
0
0
7
CES conference, Oslo, Norway, 31 May - 2 June 2010
Typical features
• develop slowly,
• become severe when they cover a large region and persist for an
extended period.
E
l
b
e
i
n
D
r
e
s
d
e
n
,
A
p
r
i
l
2
0
0
7
(
s
p
i
e
g
e
l
.
d
e
)
Anne K. Fleig et al. “Regional hydrological droughts and weather types in north
/media/ces/AnneFleig_May2010_CES.pdf
ISBN 978-9979-68-238-7. NHP Report No. 50, P. 638-645.
Kriauciuniene J. & Kovalenkovienė M. (2008). Dependence of Lithuanian river runoff extremes on atchment area. XII Biennal International Conference. Hydrological extremes in small basins, 18-20 September, 2008, Cracow, Poland. ISBN-978-83-88424-38-0. P.183-186.
Kriauciuniene, J., Kovalenkovienë, M., and Meilutytë-Barauskienë D. (2007). Changes
/ces/publications/nr/1943
]
m
³/s
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
E[Q(D=0)] vhm148
l
l
REF
IFM−ROI
IFM−CLU
l IFM−WaSiM
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
2 4 6 8 10 12
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
IFM no.
E[
Q]
m
³/s
l l l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
E[Q(D=0)] vhm149
l
l
REF
IFM−ROI
IFM−CLU
l IFM−WaSiM
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l
2 4 6 8 10 12
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
IFM no.
E[
Q]
m
³/s
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l l
l l l
/media/vedurstofan/utgafa/skyrslur/2015/VI_2015_007.pdf
c
e
m
a
n
a
g
e
m
e
n
t
6
5
8
P
a
t
r
i
c
k
D
r
i
s
c
o
l
l
D
e
n
m
a
r
k
C
i
v
i
l
e
n
g
i
n
e
e
r
i
n
g
7 78 Anja Wejs Denmark
Environmental
management
8 93 Tommy Chan Finland Forest sciences
9 140 Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola Finland
E viro me tal
economics
10 147 Jussi Ylhäisi Finland Meteorology
11 (new) Karen Lundgren Sweden
Engineering &
Design
12 (new) Väinö Nurmi Finland Economics
13
/media/loftslag/programme2---PhD-Workshop-preceding-Adaptation-Research-Conference.pdf
!
!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des
m
m
/
m
å
n
e
d
55550 Hafslo
60
80
100
120
140
jan feb ar apr ai j j l t
m
m
/
m
å
n
e
d
55550 Hafslo 54130 Lærdal
Ensemble approach for probabilistic
hydrological projections
Catchment
/media/ces/Lawrence_Deborah_CES_2010.pdf
i
on
c
a
p
ac
i
t
y
A
r
ea
of
r
e
s
i
d
en
c
e
(Flood
p
r
one
/non
p
r
one
a
r
eas)
Un
c
e
r
t
a
n
t
i
e
s
H
i
g
h
wi
l
l
i
n
g
n
e
s
s
t
o
p
a
y
L
o
w
wi
l
l
i
n
g
nes
to pay
D
i
k
e
s
H
i
gh
t
a
x
a
t
i
on
-
E
arly
w
arn
i
n
g
s
y
s
t
e
m
s
-
Sof
t
s
t
r
uct
u
r
a
l
m
e
as
u
r
e
s
-Community training
L
o
w
taxation
Risk
P
e
r
c
e
p
t
i
o
n
B
e
n
e
f
i
/media/loftslag/Group-1_Scenarios-for-AWM.pdf
ea
th
,
th
e
m
et
ho
d
u
se
d
at
th
is
st
ag
e
fo
r
th
es
e
st
ak
eh
o
ld
er
typ
es
is
sp
ec
ied
.Sh
oul
d
ther
e
be
tw
o
o
r
mor
e
model
sbein
g
develope
d
in
th
e
process
,the
n
th
e
typ
e
o
fmode
lt
o
whic
h
th
e
metho
d
wa
s
applie
d
is
show
n
in
parentheses
.O
T
re
fe
rs
to
th
e
co
m
po
si
tio
n
o
ft
he
o
rg
an
iz
in
g
te
am
.
Fo
r
o
rg
an
iz
in
g
te
am
in
vo
lve
m
en
t
in
di
ffe
re
n
t
pa
rt
/media/loftslag/Hare-2011-ParticipatoryModelling.pdf