variability
Models
Emission scenarios
2000 2100
LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY
Near future End of the
century
Natural climate variability + +
Climate model sensitivity (+) ++
Emission scenarios ++
Source: J. Räisänen (Univ. of Helsinki)
Probabilistic forecasts
of temperature change
in southern Finland
(1971-2000 barb2right 2011-2020)
Temperature change (ºC)
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
(
1
/
º
C
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
deviation across the ensemble) and sign agreement (a percentage of models in the ensemble that
project the same sign of changes as the entire ensemble does).
Analysis
In Fig.1a shown are simulated changes in the annual extreme temperature range calculated
as difference between 20 yr mean absolute annual maxima and minima temperatures in baseline
and future scenario periods. The range
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
Christian Refsgaard, GEUS All week
AP Adriaan Perrels, FMI All week
SK Sigrún Karsldóttir, IMO All week
FU Frederik Uldal, University of Copenhagen Logistic support
Course material
Papers and book chapters - recommended reading
Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management, 88, 1025-
1036. doi:10.1016
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Baker, M., S. Hincks, and G. Sherriff. 2010. Getting
involved in plan making: participation and
stakeholder involvement in local and regional
spatial strategies in England. Environment and
Planning C: Government and Policy 28
(4):574-594.
Biggs, R., C. Raudsepp-Hearne, C. Atkinson-
Palombo, E. Bohensky, E. Boyd, G. Cundill, H. Fox,
S. Ingram, K. Kok, S. Spehar, M
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
.............................................................................................................................. 27
4.3 Extraction of the ICRA timeseries ....................................................................................... 28
5 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................ 29/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2020/VI_2020_008.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Resources and Energy Directorate
Edited by: Heidi H. Pikkarainen
Print: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Number printed: 130
Cover design: Rune Stubrud
Prepared for: The CES project
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Middelthunsgate 29
P.O. Box 5091 Majorstua
N-0301 OSLO
NORWAY
Telephone: +47 22 959595
Fax: +47 22 95 90 00
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
closer to Reykjavík, eight years before that. As elsewhere in Europe sulphur concentration is lower now than when measurements began. Average value of sulphur is about 0.5 mg/l in precipitation, about 0.1 μg/m3 in aerosol and about 0.07 μg/m3 in air.
Stórhöfði - a seashore background station
Stórhöfði is at the south end of island Heimaey which is the largest of the Westman islands
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