on the
Shifts of climatic
zones from
cooler or wetter
to warmer or
drier
(a) 1971-2000 (b) 2010-39 A1B
observational data set
(0.25º grid) from Haylock
et al. (2008)
(b-d) Based on CMIP3
GCM runs for A1B
& the delta-change
method
(c) 2040-69 A1B (d) 2070-99 A1B
Jylhä et al. (2010)
Uncertainties in climate change schematically
Observed
climate
Future
climate Natural
/media/loftslag/Case_B___Road_transport_operation_and_infrastructure_planning.pdf
deviation across the ensemble) and sign agreement (a percentage of models in the ensemble that
project the same sign of changes as the entire ensemble does).
Analysis
In Fig.1a shown are simulated changes in the annual extreme temperature range calculated
as difference between 20 yr mean absolute annual maxima and minima temperatures in baseline
and future scenario periods. The range
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
Perez P, Burn S (2010) Co-engineering participatory
water management processes: theory and insights from Australian and Bulgarian interventions. Ecology and Society 15(4):11
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss4/art11
Eriksson L, Garvill J, Nordlund AM (2006). Acceptability of travel demand management measures: The importance of problem awareness, personal norm,
freedom, and fairness
/media/vedurstofan/PhD_course-Programme_26Aug2011-final.pdf
?
Methodological reflections on scalar structuration.
Progress in Human Geography 25:591-614.
Bryan, B. A., N. D. Crossman, D. King, W. S.
Meyer. 2011. Landscape futures analysis: assessing
the impacts of environmental targets under
alternative spatial policy options and future
scenarios. Environmental Modelling and Software
26(1):83-91.
Buizer, M., B. Arts, and K. Kok. 2011. Governance,
scale
/media/loftslag/Kok_and_Veldkamp_editorial_ES-2011-4160.pdf
.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
/media/loftslag/Kok_1-scenarios-lecture-1.pdf
Roald, L.A. and Engen-Skaugen, T.
Projected effects of climate change on the hydrology of Norway ........................................................................ 80
Duncan, N.J., Harrison, G.P. and Wallace, A.R.
Modelling the Scottish hydropower resource ........................................................................................................ 82
Einarsson, B
/media/ces/ces-oslo2010_proceedings.pdf
closer to Reykjavík, eight years before that. As elsewhere in Europe sulphur concentration is lower now than when measurements began. Average value of sulphur is about 0.5 mg/l in precipitation, about 0.1 μg/m3 in aerosol and about 0.07 μg/m3 in air.
Stórhöfði - a seashore background station
Stórhöfði is at the south end of island Heimaey which is the largest of the Westman islands
/pollution-and-radiation/pollution/