)
Annual
Winter
Summer
• Accounts for natural
variability and differences
between climate models
Width of the distribution primarily determined by
natural temperature variability: larger in winter than in summer.
Winter Summer Annual
Best estimate (ºC) 1.3 0.7 1.0
5-95% uncertainty range (ºC) -0.5…+3.1 -0.2…+1.6 0.0…+1.8
Probability of warming (%) 90% 90% 96%
Ref: Räisänen and Ruokolainen (2007
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deviation across the ensemble) and sign agreement (a percentage of models in the ensemble that
project the same sign of changes as the entire ensemble does).
Analysis
In Fig.1a shown are simulated changes in the annual extreme temperature range calculated
as difference between 20 yr mean absolute annual maxima and minima temperatures in baseline
and future scenario periods. The range
/media/ces/CES_D2.4_VMGO.pdf
Christian Refsgaard, GEUS All week
AP Adriaan Perrels, FMI All week
SK Sigrún Karsldóttir, IMO All week
FU Frederik Uldal, University of Copenhagen Logistic support
Course material
Papers and book chapters - recommended reading
Henriksen HJ, Barlebo HC (2008) Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management, 88, 1025-
1036. doi:10.1016
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The
American Political Science Review 97:233-243.
Jessop, B. 2005. The political economy of scale and
European governance. Tijdschrift voor Economische
en Sociale Geografie 96:225-230.
Katz, D., and I. Fischhendler. 2011. Spatial and
temporal dynamics of linkage strategies in Arab-
Israeli water negotiations. Political Geography 30
(1):13-24. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2010.12.002.
Kok, K., R. Biggs, and M
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.. But with caution
Spatial scale
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Ecological fallacy: The mistake of assuming that
where relationships are found among aggregate data,
these relationships will also be found among individuals
or households, or vice versa.
Key concepts (from ecology)
Forest cover Population
density
y = -20.1Ln(x) + 60
R2 = 0.84
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 5 10 15
Population density
F
o
re
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Roald, L.A. and Engen-Skaugen, T.
Projected effects of climate change on the hydrology of Norway ........................................................................ 80
Duncan, N.J., Harrison, G.P. and Wallace, A.R.
Modelling the Scottish hydropower resource ........................................................................................................ 82
Einarsson, B
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closer to Reykjavík, eight years before that. As elsewhere in Europe sulphur concentration is lower now than when measurements began. Average value of sulphur is about 0.5 mg/l in precipitation, about 0.1 μg/m3 in aerosol and about 0.07 μg/m3 in air.
Stórhöfði - a seashore background station
Stórhöfði is at the south end of island Heimaey which is the largest of the Westman islands
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